Ed Hawkins comes up with two value bets based on the numbers ahead of the first T20 in Ranchi on Saturday, including a sixes wager
"Virat Kohli is pretty much favourite for any market he enters. He is 5/2 to be top India runscorer, 9/2 to be top match batsman and 7/1 to be man of the match. It is arguable that he is value for at least two of those markets."
For our last statistical look at India versus Australia contests, the numbers convinced us that the odds were wrong for the sixes match bet in the fourth one-day international between the two.
India, it transpired, had the more muscle and cleared the boundary more often than the Aussies. And duly they delivered. So imagine our surprise that when we crunched the numbers for the T20 format, the opposite is true.
Australia, according to our figures, are underrated by Sportsbook for the first T20 in Ranchi. They make India an even money shot to hit the most sixes with Australia 6/5 and the tie 11/2. It is arguable the odds should be the other way round despite home advantage for India. Take a look below.
Averages sixes per game last two years
India 4.07, 4 at home, 5 last 12 months
Australia 6.4, 7.8 away, 6 last 12 months
Australia most sixes 6/5 Sportsbook
Now it could happen that those numbers are rendered irrelevant when all is said and done. Hardik Pandya, he of the most pwerful bat in India, could down Australia all on his own. Or MS Dhoni could get the helicopter shot out of the locker. We don't really know.
But what we do know is that over the last two years Australia have been better at hitting sixes. So we are quite happy to get with the tourists here.
Keep an eye on Behrendorff
With Australia having one eye on the Ashes, they have rested Pat Cummins for the T20 leg. So it means that they have turned to AJ Tye and Jason Behrendorff for pace.
These two have been superb domestically for Perth Scorchers down the years so it is good to see them united again in international action. Tye has played just five T20s and Behrendorff is set for debut. They are 10/3 and 7/2 respectively for top-bowler honours.
The odds on Tye are about right but there could be some joy in Behrendorff's price. It remains to be seen how he converts his domestic form to the highest level but he is worthy of level-pegging with his team-mate.
V for Virat
Virat Kohli is pretty much favourite for any market he enters. He is 5/2 to be top India runscorer, 9/2 to be top match batsman and 7/1 to be man of the match. It is arguable that he is value for at least two of those markets.
The man with the iron wrists top scores about 40 per cent of the time in T20 internationals. That is an extraordinary record, although David Warner's 50 per cent hit rate in IPL is still something to behold. Even so that is a massive swing in our favour.
As far as the match gong goes, only Shahid Afridi has won more awards in T20. Afridi has 11 to Kohli's ten. But it took him almost twice as long with those coming in 98 matches as opposed to Kohli's 50.
Again, that's an incredible hit rate of 20 per cent for India's main man. So the Sportsbook offering is clearly standout value.
V Kohli top India runscorer 5/2
Points staked: 8
Points p-l: +3.24
To 1pt level stakes