India v Australia First ODI Betting: Aussies worth a risk batting first

Ed Hawkins
16 September 2017

Rahane should open for India

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Ed Hawkins previews game one from Chennai in the five-match one-day series and says the toss should be crucial with both teams missing key men...

"India's run will surely be under threat with the toss bias and it is possible to make a case for Australia at 2.3811/8 if the flip goes their way"

Recommended Bet
Australia if they bat first 2.3811/8 (2pts)

India v Australia
Sunday September 17
TV: live on Sky Sports Cricket

India

India are rated the third-best ODI side in the world, one spot behind Australia. They have lost only two series at home from their last 16, stretching back to 2009 - a stat which suggests that if the rankings were based purely on what teams did in their backyard, India would probably be tops.

But their record deserves greater scrutiny, certainly over the last couple of years. Yes, New Zealand and England have been beaten but only by the odd game. And South Africa won there in 2015. Of their last 13 matches at home they have actually only won seven.

They are not at full-strength. Shikhar Dhawan is absent for the first three so Ajinkya Rahane will open. The selectors have chosen to 'rest' Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja, preferring Kuldeep Yadav and Yuz Chahal as their spinners.

Jasprit Bumrah and Bhuv Kumar look set to take the new ball and these two are as solid as it gets for pace in ODI.

Australia

Australia are without their two best bowlers in Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc. The pair are rated at Nos 1 and 3 on the bowling lists by the ICC. Surely this is a hammer blow?

They have no other bowler in the top 20 and the likes of Kane Richardson and James Faulkner could well be fodder. Indeed, Faulkner was just that on Australia's last ODI tour in 2013. They didn't have Starc then either.

Pat Cummins and Nathan Coulter-Nile are not shabby replacements, though, and both have Indian experience from stints in the IPL. The spin threat comes from Ashton Agar and Adam Zampa.

The batting is reliant on David Warner and Steve Smith. Aaron Finch is injured. Travis Head has an opportunity to make himself undroppable.

First-innings runs

There have been five ODIs at the MA Chidambaram Stadium since March 2011, producing an average of 261. The last game, two years ago, saw India post an unbeatable 299 against South Africa. Australia made 347 in their warm-up match there and we would expect 300 to be busted regardless of who bats first.

Match odds

The 2013 series was a run fest with 3,596 runs in 11 innings. India edged it by the odd game in five with two abandonments. So batting first and going big is likely, leaving the chaser under pressure.

This is particularly pertinent at this ground. Eight from the last 12 under lights have been won by the team batting first. Another stat to be aware of is India's record chasing - it's five straight wins now.

Still, that run will surely be under threat with the toss bias and it is possible to make a case for Australia at 2.3811/8 if the flip goes their way. There are some thunderstorms around.

Top India runscorer

Rohit Sharma killed Australia in that last meeting with 491 runs, outscoring Virat Kohli who notched 344. Rohit is 2.942/1 and Kohli 2.68/5. Neither could be classed as value at the odds. Rahane is 4.57/2.

Top Australia runscorer

Warner is statistically about a 3.185/40 shot for bat honours but goes off around 2.79. Smith would appear to be his only rival at 2.942/1. Warner ou also value for man of the match at 8/1 with Sportsbook when he should be about 7/1.

Recommended Bet

Australia if they bat first 2.3811/8 (2pts)

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +21.19pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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