Ed Hawkins previews this contest in Brisbane in the small hours of Tuesday and, although a risk, reckons England have what it takes to spring a surprise
"In a best case scenario England will bat first and go well, therefore putting India under pressure under the lights"
Back England at 2.3811/8
England v India
Start time: 03.20
TV: live on Sky Sports
England welcome back James Anderson, who will most likely take the place of Steven Finn. Anderson is expected to get some seam and swing from a Brisbane wicket which is fair to both parties.
Anderson is a key man. In the last five years with him in the side England have won 56% of their matches. Without him, including the disappointing loss to Australia in Sydney in the series opener, that figure is just 43%.
James Tredwell, the spinner, looks likely to miss out again with Chris Jordan retaining his place. Moeen Ali will be charged with providing the spin option.
India are once again without Ishant Sharma and Ravi Jadeja. So Umesh Yadav will be responsible for providing the pace and Ravi Ashwin and Axar Patel the spin.
Yadav was the shock bowler in India's defeat by Australia, claiming two wickets for 55. And Axar did well, bowling tightly and going at 4.50 an over. His partnership with Ashwin, is crucial. If they can expose old English wounds against spoin then they have the game in their grasp.
Rohit Sharma showed why he is one of the most feared ODI batsmen in the world with 138 from 139 balls against the Aussies. There was also a half-century for Suresh Raina.
The first-innings average during the last nine ODIs at the Gabba is 248. There have been some odd scores in that time. Last year England amassed 300 but still lost. The year before Australia were bowled out for 74 by Sri Lanka. Indeed, there have been low totals which suggest getting long of 275 or more would be brave. That would have been a loser five times.
Last summer when England and India met in a one-day series, England were 1.774/5 for game one with India 2.285/4. For this contest, India are the favourites at 1.715/7. England are 2.3811/8.
The erroneous belief back then - India comfortably won the series - was that India would struggle in English conditions. So what do the prices tell us about the wicket at The Gabba? That it will spin, that it will be slow and dusty?
It shouldn't be either of those. Instead there should be pace and some lateral movement for the bowlers. The question is: does that make England the value?
Just about. We had them around 2.26/5 given India's lacklustre start. We will be pinning our hopes on Anderson causing problems for India's batsmen, well aware that they could go off like a rocket. In reply, England will at least feel confident they won't get bogged down by turn.
In a best case scenario England will bat first and go well, therefore putting India under pressure under the lights. It can zip around there although there is no toss bias. If you want to wait for the toss then that may be the shrewd move.
England will hope history repeats itself when they have the ball at least. India have not fared well on this wicket. In the 2012 tri-series also involving Sri Lanka they were bowled out for 238 and 178 when chasing.
There could be rain around but that doesn't alter the bet in the least. It probably strengthens it. Anything which helps reduce the gulf - fewer overs and a a batting side interrupted - increases the chance of an upset.
Top England runscorer
Eoin Morgan, centurion in game one, has ground form. He got a ton at this venue a year ago so will feel right at home. Ian Bell also hit a half-century. Morgan is 5.85/1 and Bell 4.77/2. Joe Root, 5.39/2, actually has the best record against India in all conditions over the last few series. He averages 41 compared to Morgan's 23 and Bell's 39.
Top India runscorer
There were half-centuries for Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni on India's last two matches at the Gabba. Kohli is 4.1. The Gabba is the one ground he failed on during the Test series. Rohit is 4.216/5 and Ajinkya Rahane is 5.39/2. Dhoni will bat at No 6 and could be as big as 7.26/1. Suresh Raina is 7.26/1 and he has a superb record against England recently, outscoring all his teammates and averaging a whopping 62.
Back England at 2.3811/8
Ed Hawkins P/L
2014: +325.10 (ROI 28.5%)
2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)
To £10 level stakes, based only on available prices
Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting