India v Sri Lanka 2nd ODI betting: India's batsmen licking their lips

Ed Hawkins
05 November 2014

Dhawan hit a ton in Cuttack

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ed Hawkins says that Sri Lanka's depleted bowling resources make them an impossible wager in Ahmedabad on Thursday morning...

"There has to be a major concern that without significant pitch assistance their bowling looks incapable of restricting India’s batting."

Recommended bet
India at 1.68/13

India v Sri Lanka
Start time: 08.00GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports 2

India
Stuart Binny, the all-rounder, has replaced the injured Varun Aaron. Aaron hurt a quad muscle in his right leg after his fifth over in the crushing defeat of Sri Lanka in the first game in Cuttack. Changes to India's bowling would appear to be irrelevant given the form of their batsmen. They amassed 363. Ajinkya Rahane and Shikhar Dhawan both hit centuries as India reinforced their status as the most fearsome batting line-up in the world.

Their tactic in ODI in recent years has been to put so much emphasis on runscoring that bowling skills has become secondary and although that will rarely play off in challenging conditions, at home they seem just too strong. Binny is actually rather unfortunate to have been out of the side and gives much-needed control in the absence of Mohammad Shami.

Sri Lanka
Little joy for a Sri Lanka side who had looked undercooked in a warm-up and then a stringy cold cut in the first ODI. The 169-run hammering was indicative of a side who have given the impression they don't really want to be there. But, in fairness, they are short on talent. Yes, gun batsmen Tillakaratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara and Angelo Mathews are available but their bowling is non existent - a recipe for disaster against this India side. A reminder: there is no Lasith Malinga, Ajantha Mendis, Sachithara Senanayake or Rangana Herath.

First-innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten at Ahmedabad's Sardar Patel stadium is 239. There has been only one score of 300 or more during that period and it is the only example of 275 or more being breached. There were a spate of big totals (three from four 300-plus) between November 2002 and 2005 but that is a bit too long ago. It is frustrating. If there was greater evidence that the surface was good to bat on - and the average is very low - then we'd be confident backers of India runs. But it would be folly to not have the pitch on our side, even if the Cuttack stats suggested runs would be unlikely.

Match Odds
There has not been enough movement in price considering India's dominance in game one. They were 1.635/8 for victory in that game and the 1.68/13 available now is obvious value.

We do not often like getting with such skinny prices but we have India 1.558/15 here following Sri Lanka's insipid display on a wicket which, according to history, suggested they should be capable of getting a foothold in the game.

Of course we respect hugely the Jayawardenes, Sangakkaras and Matthews' in their line-up but there has to be a major concern that without significant pitch assistance their bowling looks incapable of restricting India's batting.

In the tourists' favour are two wins from their last three in Ahmedabad. That includes a chase of 285 against India in 2005. India have also lost five of their last six on the ground.

Top India runscorer
There is no real ground form to speak of for India's batsmen in recent years. Virat Kohli notched a half-century against South Africa in 2010 and Suresh Raina was one shy of the same mark in the same game. In an immature market, Kohli is 3.3512/5 jolly with Rahane and Dhawan 4.03/1. We would expect those odds to transpose. Raina is 4.77/2.

Top Sri Lanka runscorer
Jaywardene top scored last time and he gets a quote of 4.03/1. Upul Tharanga, our pick in Cuttack, was looking good for a spell before faltering. This time he is 4.57/2 which means he is the right price, even if he averages 45 in Ahmedabad. With 135 runs, he has 18 more than the top available Indian - Raina. Dilshan and Sangakkara average 61 and 39 here respectively from three games.

Recommended bet
India at 1.68/13