Ed Hawkins cannot make a case for following the Windies in the 'quarter-final' against the Proteas and suggests a play on the innings runs market instead...
South Africa v West Indies
Start time: 10.30BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports
South Africa have received a boost just in time for their 'knockout' group B match in Cardiff. Dale Steyn is expected to be fit, joining up with a pace trio who were impressive against Pakistan. "We will watch him overnight to see if he wakes up with any stiffness. If he comes through tomorrow's practice then he should be available," said team manager Mohammad Moosajee. Lonwabo Tsotsobe, Chris Morris and Ryan McLaraen will all keep their places with South Africa dropping one spinner from Robin Peterson and Aaron Phangiso. Oddly, Peterson is favourite to retain his spot despite being outbowled by his team-mate against Pakistan. JP Duminy can always fill in if South Africa need another spin option.
West Indies, as we have said before, have the best balanced squad on paper. But they are screwing things up with key men failing to take responsibility. Chris Gayle needs a score; Kieron Pollard is striking at a sub-standard rate of 57; Ramnaresh Sarwan has contributed two runs while Darren Bravo and Marlon Samuels have managed only 66 runs between them. In other words, the batsmen need to step up. The bowling is not too shabby. Kemar Roach and Sunil Narine are their greatest threats but, again, there is little contribution from the star man and captain Dwayne Bravo. The eight-wicket defeat by India at The Oval was men against boys stuff, save for Darren Sammy's 35-ball 56.
In this Champions Trophy season there have been four matches played at Sophia Gardens, including two warm-ups. The totals read: 138-331-256-308. The average first-innings score from the 11 completed first-innings total at the ground is 233. Only twice - India were responsible for 331 v South Africa in this tournament - has a side posted more than 250. The match could be delayed by rain but the skies are expected to be clear by 16:00 so a reduced-over affair looks likely. So really getting against 250 or more is a no brainer.
There is not much joy to be found here. South Africa are [1.68] and West Indies [2.44]. The default setting, which is also the correct one, is to disregard the Proteas at such short odds and try to build a case for the Windies. But the foundations are soggy. West Indies have not shown enough with the bat in this tournament, struggling in both their matches so far. And South Africa will be the best bowling unit they have faced up until now. Essentially if you want to take a plunge on the West Indies you have to do so because you are hoping against hope that the form book will be turned upside down. And we don't bet like that so we have to leave it alone.
Top South Africa batsman
Three South Africa players enjoyed Sophia Gardens against India in their opening encounter. Peterson, batting at No 3, made 68 from 72 balls, AB De Villiers hit 70 from 71 and McLaren, way down at No 8, 71 from 59. They are [10.50], [4.20] and [10.50] respectively. Hashim Amla is [3.45] favourite.
Top West Indies runscorer
Darren Bravo, who averages 45 against the Proteas in his last six matches, top-scored for West Indies in the warm-up defeat against Australia in Cardiff. He made 86 from 95 balls. Johnson Charles, the opener, struck 55 from 63. They are likely to be around [4.50] each. Gayle takes up the largest chunk of the book and will be no better than [3.75]. He has a poor record against SA< however, averaging only 21 in his last six innings.
Lay 250 runs or more at [2.00] or better