Graeme Swann: England cannot underestimate Bangladesh as they look to bounce back

Moeen Ali
Graeme is backing Moeen Ali to have a real impact with the ball against Bangladesh

England will be looking to get back to winning ways when they take on Bangladesh on Saturday but it won't be easy, warns Betfair Ambassador Graeme Swann...

"England must keep to the ultra-aggressive mode that has got them to world no.1 status. They need to be determined and go for the jugular early on, don't let Bangladesh settle and get back to winning ways."

England v Bangladesh
Saturday, 10:30
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Morgan's men need to remain ultra-aggressive

England need to bounce back after defeat to Pakistan, as discussed in my last column. Next up is Bangladesh and Eoin Morgan's men are red-hot favourites to win, at 1.162/13, with Bangladesh 7.26/1 - but I really do think many people are far too dismissive of the Tigers.

Bangladesh used to be absolute minnows and it was almost humiliating to lose to them like we did in the 2011 World Cup. This is a different team now that has played lots of ODI cricket in recent times and can call themselves world-class in their own right.

So please do not call them 'ideal opposition'.

For me, Morgan's men must return to their A-game straightaway and one thing I am wary of is them going to a cautious approach like they did in the Champions Trophy semi-final last year against Pakistan. England must keep to the ultra-aggressive mode that has got them to world no.1 status. They need to be determined and go for the jugular early on, don't let Bangladesh settle and get back to winning ways.

I do expect England to win, but I do also think it'll be closer than people think. If we bat I am looking for England to post 350 or more and if we bowl I'd like to see us restrict Bangladesh to 280 but it won't be an easy task given how they played against South Africa.

BangladeshShakibMasrafe1280.jpg

Keep faith with Jonny

I have jinxed Bairstow and Roy with my top batsman bets this tournament, but I'm doing it again! It's Jonny again for me at 11/4, he looked great until he got out and will be hungry to get his tournament going.

For a top bowler punt, I went for Adil Rashid last time and got it half right as it was a spinner, Moeen Ali, who did the damage and I will side with that man here, at 5/1. He bowled really well last time and he is a confidence player who can perform well in consecutive games. When Bangladesh are batting watch out for Mamudullah coming in lower down the order, he is a danger man.


Crick-o-nomics: What do the stats say?

Ed Hawkins provides the pure value for the top-bat and bowler markets by revealing players' real odds on a two-year form study for the markets

Last man standing

Value is disappearing fast on top England bat. There is only one who is out of line with his true chances of copping – Ben Stokes. But we bet him at 8s for a big win in game one and the 11/2 on offer is only a 3% swing in our favour. To be fair, Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow haven’t been the right price for some time – they are both 11/4 with Sportsbook but win 18% and 20% of the time respectively. Joe Root, despite top scoring last time against Pakistan, has a 16% hit rate so 10/3 is no fun.

Plump for Plunkett

There’s not much joy on top England bowler, according to our data. Adil Rashid is consistent but he doesn’t win this market often – four in 47. That’s an 8.5% rate. Rashid is 7/2. We still don’t have enough of a study period to rule in, or out, Jofra Archer at 11/4. There is a whole point in our favour on Liam Plunkett at 7/2. He probably won’t play but if he does we’d be confident he’ll get amongst it.

Tamim for tap

Shakib-al-Hasan is a classy strokemaker and of doughty temperament. But he’s copping at 20% for top Bangladesh bat in the last two years. The 3/1 that Sportsbook offer is too short, even if he is batting at No 3 these days. Of his 25 innings, 16 have been at first down. Tamim Iqbal is a blaster who has plenty of failings. But he wins in line with a 2/1 shot here and we can get 7/2. Mushfiqur Rahman is a 16/5 chance on the data but Sportsbook go 4s. Given the greater edge, we have to side with Tamim.

Fizz on fire but too short

Mustafizur Rahman has found form on top Bangladesh bowler. He’s put four wins together in a short space of time meaning an overall record of five successes in 28 with three ties doesn’t do him justice. The 5/2 doesn’t have us banging down the door, however. Shakib gets at 11/4 quote but on form he should be closer to 11/2.

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