Hawk Eye on South Africa v England Second T20: Jordan and Wood impress eventually

Mark Wood
Wood finally found his line

Ed Hawkins spots an edge on top bowler as England look to level the series in Durban on Friday...

"With a similar sluggish wicket in Durban Jordan and Wood should be on the money from ball one and complete a full quota. Both look big at 7/2 and 10/3 respectively"

England should win six battle

Jos Buttler's 50% win rate took a hit when he failed to land in East London on Thursday. But the notion that we abandon him after one failure makes little sense, Back Jos Buttler top England bat 12/5 Sportsbook">particularly as Sportsbook's 12/5 still has appeal.

Buttler looked in good touch but, unfortunately, took on Dale Steyn once too often and spooned a simple catch. It is how he plays. On another day he survives and goes on. That willingness to take on shots is what has made him so successful.

There are murmurings among the media that Buttler should not be 'wasted' as an opener. This seems a ridiculous argument. We don't expect England to fold after one game on strategy, particularly as they are playing the long game. The wickets they are experiencing in South Africa are highly unlikely to be replicated in the World T20 in Australia later this year. They are defining roles in this series.

Once England worked out the pace of the wicket in the field, Chris Jordan and Mark Wood proved themselves to be superb death bowlers. With so little data to go on in the last two years for top bowler, there's nothing wrong with expecting these two to dominate the market off the back of that effort.

Jordan, who pinched the win with two wickets in his final over, and Wood bowled only three overs each because they were so wasteful up front. With a similar sluggish wicket in Durban both should be on the money from ball one and complete a full quota. Both look big at 7/2 and 10/3 respectively.

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England last two years top bat wins/matches
Roy 3/9
Bairstow 2/12
Buttler 3/9
Stokes 0/3
Morgan 2/16
Malan 4/7
Ali 0/4

England last two years top bowler top bowler wins/matches
Jordan 4 2t/15
Wood t/2
Rashid 6t/14
Malan t/6
Denly 1/5
T Curran 2 2t/10
S Curran t/5
Mahmood t/3

SA last two years top bat wins/matches
Phehlukwayo 3 2t/15
Steyn 0/3
Ngidi 1 2t/5
Shamsi 3t/15
B Hendricks 1 t/5

SA last two years top bat wins/matches
De Kock 3/8
Miller 2/16
R Hendricks 2/13
Van Der Dussen 1/10
Pretorius 1/5
Bavuma 1/3

Fours a short

We're keen on England hitting most sixes because of two-year averages. But we're not expecting a run glut because of the Kingsmead records for bowlers pinning down batters.

Sportsbook's total sixes and fours market take our fancy. We want to go under at 12.5 and 26.5 at even money and 8/11 respectively because of healthy edges in our favour.

In all men's T20 shorting the sixes quote would have been a winner 68.6% of the time. In internationals it's been a winner in eight matches out of 13. The numbers are more startling with fours - 72.4% going under is a winner while the ratio is the same as shorting sixes in internationals.

Hawk-Eye P-L

2020 - points p-l: -8.27 (16.5 points staked)
2019 - points p-l: +30.25 (133 points staked)
2018 - points p-l: +9.86 (89 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)

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