Pakistan v England Third T20 Betting: Tourists on the drift

England celebrate winning the series
England celebrate winning the series

Ed Hawkins previews the action from Sharjah on Monday and wonders whether England might decide to pick their strongest team this time...


"In T20 the importance of the toss is reduced slightly but it is a factor that we should be wary of"

Recommended Bet
Back-to-lay Pakistan 2.0811/10 to 1.75/7

Pakistan v England
Start time: 16.00
TV: live on Sky Sports


Pakistan

Pakistan haven't really turned up for the limited-overs leg of the tour. Defeat on Friday in the second T20 was their fifth in six and it cost them the series.

They did, however, finally manage to pick Ahmed Shehzad, who has been a reliable performer for them. Unfortunately he ran down the wicket to be stumped on 28 just when Pakistan looked to be hitting top gear in pursuit of 173.

Don't be surprised if Pakistan rest some key players. Wahab Riaz, the energetic pacer, might be due a game out. Mohammad Irfan and Aamer Yamin could come in.


England

England are yet to play their strongest team in this T20 series as they have shuffled their pack. With an unassailable lead it has paid off although detractors might argue they should be focussing on a core XI with the World T20 just around the corner.

Eoin Morgan, Moeen Ali, Reece Topley and Chris Jordan all sat out the second game. So how many of them would come back in to form their strongest team? If, of course, England want to pick their best team

Morgan is a certainty because he is captain so James Vince, despite a strong tour, would make way. There doesn't appear to be any room for Moeen with Sam Billings performing so well from a batting point of view. But then he could play instead of Stephen Parry.

Liam Plunkett deserves to retain his place after two superb efforts so David Willey could make way for Topley.


First-innings runs

There have been nine T20s played at Sharjah and the first-innings scores in those games read (most recent first): 137-146-148-171-90-149-162-139-132. That is an average of just 127. Pakistan posted only 208 in the third ODI in Sharjah and before that game the average in the previous ten ODI was 241. We shouldn't expect a run glut therefore.


Match odds

England are 1.9110/11 for victory with Pakistan 2.0811/10. Can you spot what is peculiar about those odds?

Despite having won both games England have actually drifted in the betting. They were 1.84/5 to win game one and 1.855/6 to win game two.

Given that England have been proven to be the better side it is obvious that they can be considered the value. One could argue it's a great price if, for the first time, they pick their best team.

But Pakistan have hardly been unreliable in this series. They have performed as one would expect from outsiders. Indeed, trading them to come favourites has twice paid off. There's nothing wrong with a hat-trick.

There have been only two day-nighters played at Sharjah with one game each won by the side batting first and second. Is the toss key here?

Probably. In ODI eight from the last 13 have been won by the side batting first. In T20 the importance is reduced slightly but it is a factor that we should be wary of.


Top Pakistan runscorer

Pakistan have only played one T20 at Sharjah - a four-wicket victory over Afghanistan who treat it more as a home venue. Mohammad Hafeez top scored in that game. Hafeez has a good record in ODI at Sharjah, averaging 47 with two tons. It was he who top scored in the ODI at the venue.


Top England runscorer

James Taylor and Jos Buttler rescued England on what was a sluggish pitch in the third ODI. Taylor's ability to nudge and nurdle is probably best matched by Morgan. He is a fancy to go well here and you could get prices as big as 6.05/1.


Recommended Bet

Back-to-lay Pakistan 2.0811/10 to 1.75/7


Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£342.30
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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