Hawk Eye on New Zealand v England First T20: Which Colin will fire?

Colin Munro
Munro's record doesn't bear scrutiny

Ed Hawkins has a top-bat wager for game one in Christchurch on Friday. But it's not the one you might think...

"One suspects that had Neesham played in any of those 20 matches that our new beau top scored in, his win rate would have been reduced"

Kiwi tops markets studied

Fickle bunch, bettors. Before the World Cup some (not naming any names...although it was me) didn't quite get what Colin de Grandhomme brought to the table. By the end of the tournament, he almost won them the trophy on his own with a seriously good bowling performance in the final.

De Grandhomme took two wickets for just 25 runs off his 10 overs. And had the match not ended in farce and an England 'win', he could have taken man of the match. It's safe to say, though, that we have big respect for big Colin.

More than ever, in fact, after perusing the top-bat records for New Zealand in the last two years in Twenty20. De Grandhomme has proved more than useful once again, winning four times in 20 matches.

What does that mean? Well, it means that the 8/1 that Sportsbook offer about him top scoring at the Hagley Oval is value. His 20% win rate is superior to those ahead of him in the betting like Tim Seifert, Ross Taylor and, believe it or not, Martin Guptill.

As discussed in our match preview, the Hagley Oval has a tendency to help out the quick men so there is potential for the top order to get blown away. That could let in our man.

The planets are not quite all in a row, however. It is irritating that Jimmy Neesham returns and the all-rounder will probably bat in front of him. One suspects that had Neesham played in any of those 20 matches that our new beau top scored in, his win rate would have been reduced.

Ferguson fiery

Colin Munro is the man to beat, as per the lists below. Sportsbook are bang on with their price of 11/4, however. Munro has played only two matches at the Oval in his career, returning 30 runs at a strike rate of 125. De Grandhomme has two games with a strike rate of 185.

For top Kiwi bowler we suspect Lockie Ferguson is value at 10/3 but we don't have the two-year data to back it up. It's a market which has not been dominated by anyone, testament to the home team's all-round bowling strength. They all contribute.

The 7/2 that Sportsbook offer about Ish Sodhi catches the eye, although he is a draw specialist. It's six ties and one outright win in 22. Something else that goes against him is the wicket. It's one which has helped the pacers far more.

We don't have a strong view on the tops markets for England, largely because they are a much-changed team. Jonny Bairstow is the 11/4 jolly for most runs but we would have him more like 3/1. Dawid Malan is not a 7/2 on the number of times he has top scored but the study sample size is close to irrelevant.

Top New Zealand runscorer wins/matches last two years
Munro 6 t/23
Guptill 3/17
Seifert 1/14
Williamson 2/18
Taylor 2/17
De Grandhomme 4/20
Latham 1/1
Phillips 1/10
Anderson t/2
Bracewell ¼
Southee 1/22

Top New Zealand runscorer wins/matches last two years
Sodhi 1 6t/22
Boult 3 t/11
Southee 2 4t/21
Rance 1 2t/8
Wheeler 1/2
Santner 1 6t/19
De Grandhomme 1 t/14
Milne 2/3
Ferguson 2t/4
Mitchell 2t/6

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