England v South Africa Second ODI Betting: Expect Saffers to show improvement

South Africa need AB and Amla to come off together
South Africa need AB and Amla to come off together

Ed Hawkins previews game two from Southampton on Saturday and says the tourists should not be written off


"We’re not going to change our view that the tourists are as capable as England. They are the No 1-ranked team after all."

Recommended Bet
Trade South Africa from 2.111/10 to 1.68/13

England v South Africa
Saturday 27 May 11.00
TV: live on Sky Sports


England

England are 1-0 up after what they will reckon was a complete ODI performance at Headingley. They posted 339 with contribution from the top, middle and lower-order and then squeezed South Africa in a chase.

The star of the show was Moeen Ali. His 77 from 51 balls at No 7 was terrific and it highlighted their extraordinary strength in depth. It means that if Ben Stokes is to miss out with an injury - and why would England risk him with the Champions Trophy round the corner? - he won't be that big a miss.

Captain Eoin Morgan led from the front with a century while Chris Woakes, with four wickets, and Liam Plunkett were mean and miserly, banishing worries about England's ability to defend. And when Moeen returned to snare AB De Villiers and Chris Morris, the game was up.

If Stokes does miss out, Sam Billings or Jonny Bairstow will get the nod. It would seem unlikely that Jake Ball, an extra pacer, would be drafted in after Moeen's super show.


South Africa

Despite the margin of defeat - a sizeable 72 runs - South Africa were in the game. When they had Stokes pouched by David Miller off Kagiso Rabada and Jos Buttler fell eight runs later at 198 for five, they were firm favourites.

Even in the chase they were going well with Hashim Amla and Faf Du Plessis well set with a long batting line-up to come. From 145 for one they will shake their heads at being bowled out for 267.
They could make changes as a result. Morne Morkel, left out in favour of Wayne Parnell, could return. Miller's spot may also be under threat.

Considering South Africa have power with the bat lower down in the form of Morris, they might prefer to pick the more reliable Farhaan Behardien in the middle-order anchor role. Behardien can nudge it or go big while Miller can only play one way. He is a six and out merchant.


First-innings runs

The first-innings average at the Rose Bowl in the 17 ODI matches played there (we don't include the farce that was USA v Australia) is 262. More than 300 had not been breached until five games ago when the Kiwis amassed 359 for three in 2013. Since then both England and New Zealand busted 300 in 2015 and Australia posted 305. Pakistan could only manage 260 against England last summer, though, in a comfortable home win.


Match odds

We are sore after losing three points on the South Africans. And we are worried because we have three more on them to win the series. But we're not going to change our view that the tourists are as capable as England. They are the No 1-ranked team after all.

The odds are the same as they were for game one. England are 1.865/6 with South Africa 2.111/10. We are happy to take on England at those odds.

For those who are nervous about betting before the toss, your fears may be justified. There could be big odds available at the break. Traders may still prefer South Africa to chase because they need more than one game of evidence that England have solved their profligacy in the field.

But with England's batting so strong, totals of 300-plus are going to see South Africa bigger than the 2.111/10 they currently are. If England chase, we have always said we would get with them at anything up to 330 at decent odds.


Top England runscorer

Morgan has a good record at the Roise Bowl. He notched a century in 2010 against Pakistan and recorded honours with 71 against New Zealand in 2013. He is 4.84/1. Moeen is 11.010/1 and Buttler, who we think looks big, is 7.613/2.


Top South Africa runscorer

Betting here is congested to say the least. Only 0.9 points separate the 3.613/5 favourite Amla from the fourth favourite, Du Plessis, at 4.57/2. In between De Villiers is 4.03/1 and Quinton De Kock 4.216/5. De Villiers, on the stats, is the rightful jolly.


Total sixes

South Africa average 4.2 sixes per game in the last 12 months. England average 5.6. So both teams will have to show extra muscle for Sportsbook's 5/6 that over 10.5 sixes are hit. England are 5/6 to hit more.


Recommended Bet

Trade South Africa from 2.111/10 to 1.68/13


Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +8.41pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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