England v Pakistan
Tuesday August 30, 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Another stroll for England last time out at Lord's. The second ODI was effectively done and dusted by the fourth over when Pakistan were reduced to two for three.
Pakistan did well to recover for 202 for five but just as they looked poised to launch an assault - as they did in game one - they fell away badly.
Joe Root and Eoin Morgan crafted beautifully-timed innings while Ben Stokes smashed it all over the place. England didn't break sweat despite the post-match platitudes from Root stating Pakistan were a "very good side". Utter rubbish.
It is hard to see how Sharjeel Khan, Sami Aslam and Babar Azam are going to cause England problems this series. Such is their inexperience, Pakistan are fighting a losing battle before a ball has been bowled.
It might be an idea to promote Sarfaraz Ahmed in an attempt to restrict the carnage. His century at HQ was sublime and he should be batting higher than No 5.
Mohammad Hafeez has been dropped so they are lacking in nous, although his form was so bad he can hardly be described as a loss. Imad Wasim's half-century was a bonus, though.
Wasim also did well with the ball but Yasir Shah was expensive. Umar Gul missed out for the slippery Hasan Ali.
Here are the last 10 first-innings scores (1-2 denotes game won by side batting first or second) in day-night ODI at Trent Bridge: 286-tied/349-2/287-1/182-2/174-2/250-2/296-1/299-2/83-2/235-2. The average is 244. On Sportsbook, Pakistan are 4.03/1 to score between 235.5 and 268.5. That looks a fair wager.
The eagle-eyed will spot the toss bias under lights in Nottingham. It's slightly confusing as it's a widely-held belief that it is harder to chase under lights than defend. But not here.
Seven of the last ten have been won by the team batting second, although that can be explained by seam and swing being more readily available early on for some reason.
Does this give Pakistan their best chance of victory? Probably. After failing twice defending, they may as well give a chase a go, given the opportunity.
England have been profligate when in the field second themselves in their new era so it will be a test of their continued improvement if the call goes against them.
England are as short as 1.351/3 with Pakistan 3.7511/4. We'll take the latter price on the visitors with a view to trade at jolly status if they bat second.
Top England runscorer
Chris Woakes top scored for England at this ground earlier this summer when he inspired an improbable tie against Sri Lanka. Jos Buttler also made 93. If Mohammad Amir and Wahab Riaz can get it to bend first up it may pay to look lower down the order, starting from Morgan who will be around 6.05/1. Buttler could be as big as 10.09/1.
Alex Hales, on his home ground, desperately needs a score otherwise he will come under pressure for his place. He averages 36 in ODI there.
Top Pakistan runscorer
Only Azhar and Sarfaraz can be trusted for this market. Azhar is 4.57/2 and Sarfaraz 5.59/2, a price which is coming down with every match. Wasim is 14.013/1 and Shoab Malik 8.07/1. Shoaib has played one List A game at TB and managed a duck.
Trade Pakistan from 3.7511/4 to 1.910/11 if they bat second