England v Pakistan Second ODI Betting: Roy's the boy to follow

Ed Hawkins
25 August 2016

Jason Roy looked in superb touch

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Ed Hawkins previews game two at Lord's on Saturday and says backing in-form Jason Roy looks to be the best call in a match where the match odds are weighted heavily in favour of the hosts...

"The way Roy was hitting the ball it is hard not to expect another score from him on a good wicket"

Recommended Bet
Back Jason Roy to score over 26.5 runs at 5/6

England v Pakistan
Saturday August 27, 10:30
Live on Sky Sports 2

England
So far so easy for England. The hosts enjoyed a comfortable 44-run win on Wednesday (under the Duckworth Lewis Method) and it was never in doubt according to the odds.

Having been set 260, rain reduced the target and with the score on 194 for three and England way ahead, there was little doubt that they would have passed the original total with ease.

Jason Roy's 65 from 56 balls set them up and there was a controlled 61 from Joe Root. Captain Eoin Morgan and Ben Stokes, playing as a batsman only, did the rest.

With the ball, England hunted as a pack. Of the six bowlers used only Moeen Ali failed to take a wicket but his economy rate of just 4.28 ensured his contribution was also important. Adil Rashid was top bowler with two.

David Willey remains a doubt with a hand injury. But even if he was fit England would probably stick with the same XI.

Pakistan
Pakistan produced the sort of performance at the Rose Bowl which, presumably, coach Mickey Arthur was worried about. Even before a ball was bowled he doubted his team's ability to be competitive.

There was some style but a woeful lack of substance. Azhar Ali's 82 at a strike rate of 74 was useful but old school. Sarfaraz Ahmed grabbed the plaudits with a quick 55 but then dropped them again when shelling a chance off Roy.

That was a key moment. England would have been 34 for two and Pakistan would have been in the game.

Pakistan will consider a recall for Yasir Shah at Lord's where he destroyed England in the Tests. That would mean one from Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul missing out.

First-innings runs
Here are the last ten first-innings scores at Lord (1/2 denotes game won by side batting first or second): 309-1/300-1/227-2/220-2/272-2/280-1/246-2/265-1/277-1/235-2. As you can see there is a trend - the side batting first is going to have to at least bust 270. Add in England deep batting and it would seem Pakistan are going to have to post 300. England have lost their last three at HQ and five of their last 17. Significant? Not really because this is an England team the like of which we've never seen.

Match odds
England are 1.454/9 and Pakistan 3.185/40. Just one match in we have a problem. Pakistan, as feared, did not show anything in game one to suggest they can cause an upset in this series.

Their batting lacked acceleration and power at the start and finish and their bowling lacked nous. With experienced campaigners like Umar Gul and Wahab Riaz the lack of cutters and Yorkers was a real surprise.

But at least that can be remedied. The skill required to post big enough totals to test this England team cannot be learnt in such a short time.

The biggest problem we have is that the market is well aware of Pakistan's deficiencies. At no stage did they come below 2.68/5 at Southampton.

This kills off trading possibilities because even when they were in reasonable position - at 178 for three with 300 on the cards for most teams - there was no faith in the market. True, the rain break did not help but Mohammad Nawaz and Imad Wasim don't convince at Nos 7 and 8.

The forecast is for cloud but there should be no threat to a full game. A bit of rain is expected at 10.00 but it is only a shower.

Top England runscorer
Roy's innings was sublime at the Rose Bowl. There was no muscle involved, no slogging, no ugly hoiks. He played pure cricket shots, backfoot punches which were all down to timing. The way he was hitting the ball it is hard not to expect another score from him on a good wicket. He averages 24.5 at HQ with two fifties. He will go off around 4.57/2. The 5/6 that he scores over 26.5 with the Sportsbook is fair.

Top Pakistan runscorer
Sharjeel Khan was peppered with short stuff and was found wanting. It's all very well boshing Irish bowlers around but this is big boy stuff. With his threat reduced Azhar, 4.03/1 and Sarfaraz 6.511/2 are the best options.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2016: +113.82
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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