England v Pakistan ODI Series Betting: Home side expect a whitewash

Ed Hawkins
23 August 2016

Wahab must lead the line

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Ed Hawkins previews the five-match series, which starts on Wednesday, and searches for value with Eoin Morgan's men huge favourites...

"Hafeez, who tops the run lists, had an appalling Test series and one wouldn’t trust him to carry a saucer of milk let alone a batting unit at the moment"

Recommended Bets
England to win 4-1 at 2.915/8
Sarfraz top Pakistan series batsman at 13.012/1

Not so long ago - about a year to be precise - England were one of the most reliable one-day teams in the world to make money from. For home series, they were almost always overrated. And on the road their hosts were never quite given the respect they deserved.

So it is a learning curve, a steep one at that, to consider England as short as 1.374/11 to beat Pakistan, who are an immature 3.412/5, in a five-match contest. It almost screams value when you recall England were 1.21/5 to beat Sri Lanka.

Were we hoping for better? Yes. But that could have been moments of fantasy, dreaming of half-baked prices in the half-awake hours.

There was a small hope, ultimately futile, that the market might suffer a bit of a knee-jerk to Pakistan's Test comeback as it is far from unheard of for the long form to impact the short.

Therefore we are left to ponder. What on earth to do? It is once in a blue moon stuff when we play at anything shorter than 1.51/2. After all, what would be the point? This column's job is to find value not to state the bleeding obvious.

Our only possible wagers are a bet on Pakistan to win the thing or a correct series score splurge. Neither are appetising or straightforward prospects. Oh for the days when an England ODI series was a licence to print money off the back of solid, value bets.

The portents for Pakistan are not good. Their own coach, Mickey Arthur, has said their form is a major concern. They have six players in their squad under the age of 25. They have lost five of their last six matches and two consecutive series, one of those to England.

This is due to a rebuilding project. England started theirs immediately after the World Cup fiasco Down Under. If that was revolution, Pakistan are attempting evolution. They have been more gradual in their overhaul but they are missing key personnel.

With the ball they are without three of their top four wicket-takers in the last two years. Mohammad Irfan's 42 wickets is bettered only by 46 from Wahab Riaz, who leads the line. Rahat Ali (18) and Shahid Afridi (17) are also out.

Ahmed Shehzad, their second highest runscorer in the same period, has been discarded and there is, of course no Misbah-ul-Haq. This means Pakistan rely on skipper Azhar Ali, Mohammad Hafeez, Sarfraz Ahmed and Shoaib Malik.

It is not a line-up which England will fear. Indeed, Hafeez, who tops those run lists, had an appalling Test series and one wouldn't trust him to carry a saucer of milk let alone a batting unit at the moment.

Unsurprisingly, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that it would take something extraordinary for a naïve, ill-equipped Pakistan to stop England's surge in this format. It is not a simple equation to work out how they can win a game either, which brings us to the correct score market.

Bets on a whitewash, which will probably go off at around 6.05/1, could well prove to be shrewd although there is the obvious concern about the weather playing spoilsports and scuppering this market, as it did against Sri Lanka earlier in the summer.

A 4-1 success is currently 2.915/8 with the Sportsbook arm and the method behind the wager is inspired by small doubts as to whether England are quite the all-conquering force they believe.

We are yet to be wholly convinced that they can get a score and then defend, which is the true art of ODI. The batsmen need to read the pitch so risks are not taken in pursuit of an unlikely 300, and then they need to defend it.

This makes the third ODI at Trent Bridge the most fascinating clash. A toss bias under lights preys on that insecurity about England and plays into Pakistan's hands. Of the last 10 results, eight have been won by the side batting second. If Pakistan get the call right, Wahab, Mohhamad Amir and Yasir Shah must perform.

A bonafide nuggets of value include Sarfraz to be top Pakistan series runscorer at 13.012/1. That's a whopping price about a guy who is third on the run lists in the last two years and showed in the Tests he has a reasonable handle on conditions.

Sharjeel Khan, who thrashed 152 against the Irish, is 5.59/2 but Azhar gets top billing at 3.55/2 which is far too skinny.

Recommended Bets

England to win 4-1 at 2.915/8
Sarfraz top Pakistan series batsman at 13.012/1

Ed Hawkins P-L

2016: +113.82
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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