England v Pakistan Fourth Test In-Play Betting: One last wager on tourists

Ed Hawkins
12 August 2016

Anderson threatens Pakistan but the tourists can knuckle down

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Ed Hawkins says backing Pakistan for 250 or more is no leap of faith at The Oval with a series-levelling win beyond them

"Pakistan need only perform well below par for us to have a winner here. If you wanted to back them to perform moderately, you can back 350 or more at 4.67/2. There are worse bets."

Pakistan have been written off in the fourth and final Test at The Oval. This despite performing admirably to restrict England to 328 on what looks a fair batting wicket.

It is true that having to bat last on a surface which deteriorates probably damns their hopes of equalising in last-gasp fashion, but even so the rush to get with the home team has been rapid. England are no better than 1.364/11. Pakistan are 6.25/1 and the draw is 9.417/2.

We are not suggesting getting with the tourists. If they were to get close to parity in their second innings they would still have the examination in the fourth innings where surely anything more than 250 would be too much.

If they do, remember that sentence. England will be a good wager at anything more than 1.75/7, just like they were in the third Test.

But we are happy to get with Pakistan to score some runs on what should be as good a batting track as Lord's - where they posted 339 and 215 - and Edgbaston. In Birmingham their batting really shone in the second dig and they turned the game on its head thanks to Azhar Ali's ton. They totalled 400.

We would not expect a score as big. We don't need to. They are 1.784/5 for 250 or more and 2.26/5 for 275 or more. Both look good prices.

The second-innings scores in the last ten years read: 149-486-377-637-300-308-160-316-345-504. So if we backed 250 or more would have the weight of numbers on our side. We would have won eight times out of ten. The average is also on our side - a mark of 358.

So Pakistan need only perform well below par for us to have a winner here. If you wanted to back them to perform moderately, you can back 350 or more at 4.67/2. There are worse bets.

What is so tempting about Pakistan's batting here is the fact that really shouldn't have to worry too much about movement through the air or off the pitch, phenomenon which are their nemesis when they come to England.

The Oval is a flat, true and good batting wicket, much like the pitches they are used to in Dubai. Okay, it might be a little quicker but it should still inspire confidence.

Indeed, they have a good record of run-getting on this ground. In the last ten years they have batted second twice and they would have won our bet each time - 308 in 2010 and 504 in 2006. The 300 India scored batting second in 2011 is also a good pointer considering the similar characteristics of the two nations' batsmen.

The 1.784/5 could get bigger quickly. With a nightwatchman at the crease - Yasir Shah - after Stuart Broad removed Sami Aslam last night England will expect to have Pakistan two down early. At not many for two Pakistan will look in graver trouble than they are in reality.

The key men are Azhar, Misbah-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq and Sarfraz Ahmed. Azhar and Sarfraz are two dashers with Shafiq and Misbah the meat, the substance in the sandwich. They are redoubtable sorts and can frustrate while the other two provide the flair. It's a tantalising combination.

We would like to rely on Younis Khan but his form has been so horrible that he doesn't bear thinking about. If he could contribute 20-odd that would be a bonus.

Are there concerns after Pakistan folded in Birmingham? Yes. They folded at Old Trafford, too. For most teams this would weigh heavily on their minds. Not Pakistan. They are mercurial, which is another way of saying untrustworthy or infuriatingly inconsistent.

'Never again' is a phrase punters often associated with Pakistan. They cannot be relied upon. But it is not a huge ask here for them to post 250 or more. It is still a failure on this wicket if they scraped to 260.

If we were really placing our faith in them we would be taking the bigger odds on 300 or more. Or, as we said, the much better price about them performing merely averagely for this ground.

It's a bet at the end of the day, and although Pakistan make us nervous it is the value which entices us to go in one more time.

Recommended Bet

Back Pakistan for 250 runs or more at 1.784/5

Ed Hawkins P-L

2016: +106.02
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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