England v New Zealand 5th ODI Betting: Hosts to pinch famous win

Ed Hawkins
19 June 2015

Wood and England could be celebrating

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Ed Hawkins reckons England can pinch a thrilling series win in Durham on Saturday as the bowlers finally get their chance to dominate...

"It is testament to England's turnaround in fortunes that it doesn’t sound bonkers to state that they now look the better team"

Recommended Bet
Back England at 2.0811/10

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.30BST
TV: live on Sky Sports

England

England are deservedly level following another rip-roaring batting performance. Set 350 to win they lost only three wickets and had a whole six overs to spare.

It was a record chase - another landmark smashed - for a team who have conjured one of the most bizarre personality transplants in sport. One day they were dour and hopeless, now they are thrilling and bordering on brilliance.

Eoin Morgan and Joe Root both smashed centuries but it was a 38-ball 67 from Alex Hales which set the tone. Jason Roy is beginning to find his feet with the bat, too.

They weren't too bad with the ball (Mark Wood was exceptional), either, until they lost their way. Sure the Kiwis got off to a flyer but England dragged them back in the middle part of the innings by bowling back of a length. At the death, however, they showed their inexperience by diverting from that tactic.

New Zealand

Brendon McCullum said the loss of Trent Boult to injury was a "huge blow" and it looked that way as the tourists had no answer to rapier-like batting. Ben Wheeler, Boult's replacement, went for 9.37 an over.

Tim Southee and Kane Williamson did Ok by keeping their economy rates to just seven but McCullum will be alarmed that his attack can't seem to take wickets or exert pressure. It was four ball followed by six ball in Nottingham.

Andrew Mathieson, the Central Districts seamer, could make his ODI debut. He was called up as cover for Boult and it would appear the Kiwis have little to lose by picking him. The surprise factor might be enough for him to return an economy rate of under seven, which would be a success in this series.

First-innings runs

The first-innings average in 14 ODI at Chester-le-Street is just 235, a stat which confirms its reputation as a bowler-friendly surface. There have been some low totals since 1999 and more than 275 has not been breached in the last five games.

It would be refreshing for the ball to dominate bat just as it did when New Zealand played there last. Well, sort of. They were shot out for 193 in reply to England's 307.

Match odds

England have won five from seven at Chester-le-Street and they look a decent wager to add to their number of victories. They are 2.111/10 with New Zealand 1.875/6.

It is testament to their turnaround in fortunes that it doesn't sound bonkers to state that they now look the better team. What is most surprising is that they have done it without relying on seam or swing to come to their rescue.

So they will have to step back in time to succeed in Durham with the ball expected to bend. A showery weather forecast should make it a bowling day. So with movement through the air a strong possibility we have a potential shootout between two bowling sides. Wood, on his home ground, could have a stormer.

And with England, who are normally reliable in such conditions, bowling slightly better than the Kiwis at the moment, it makes sense to consider them the value. New Zealand look shot of confidence in the field and the market hasn't adjusted for that.

Top England runscorer

Morgan top scored with 40 against Sri Lanka last summer as England were on the receiving end of a fruity pitch. Morgan, 5.14/1, and Root, 4.47/2, have scored 592 of England's 789 runs off the bat.

Top New Zealand runscorer

McCullum was opening the batting in 2008 when they were humbled by England on this ground. He top scored with 36. He is 4.67/2. But Ross Taylor and Williamson have dominated in much the same way Morgan and Root have. They are 5.04/1 and 3.814/5 respectively.

Recommended Bets

Back England at 2.111/10
Lay 325 first-innings runs or more at 2.01/1

Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£201.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80

To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.

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