England v New Zealand 3rd ODI Betting: Morgan to the fore

England were undone by the weather
England were undone by the weather

Ed Hawkins previews the third match from Southampton on Sunday in what is proving to be a thrilling series between two well-matched teams...

"Eoin Morgan is in blistering touch. He averages a whopping 77 on the ground and has two tons to his name"

Recommended Bet
Back E Morgan for half-century at 2.111/10

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.30
TV: live on Sky Sports


Despite conceding a record total against New Zealand at The Oval on Friday, England were unfortunate to lose as the series was levelled. It seems odd to say after such a profligate bowling display but their batting was so exceptional that they were hard done by.

England appeared to be on course for a victory which would have been more stunning than the one they managed in the first ODI (read here just why that was so exceptional). Set an improbable 399 to win, England set about their task with, well, ease.

Jason Roy and Alex Hales gave them a platform, Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler pulverised the run rate and just when the game appeared lost with those two gone, Adil Rashid and Liam Plunkett looked like taking them to the brink. It was harsh that the D-L Method calculation went against them.

New Zealand

The collective sigh of relief from New Zealand's players when the rain came was audible in each compass point of London. They got out of jail and no mistake.

And it is hard not to be extremely disappointed with them. Having batted so superbly with Ross Taylor hitting a marvellous century and Kane Williamson exuding such class the game should have been as good as won.

Unfortunately they thought the same and were ill-disciplined with their line and length in the field and seemed incapable of exerting any kind of control. That's two games running that they have been listless.
What can they do to change it up? Not much. Corey Anderson, the all-rounder, has left the tour with a back problem. His pace could have been useful in place of one of the Kiwis' two spinners - Nathan McCullum and Mitchell Santner.

It means that they may have to stick with the same XI, unless they bring back Matt Henry for a possible bowler-friendly wicket. But that weakens the batting.

First-innings runs

There have been seven one-day internationals at the Ageas Bowl in the last five years. They have returned an average first-innings score of 277. There has been only one total of 300 or more. That was by New Zealand in 2013 when they beat England by 86 runs.

That total came in a day match. In other words an early start when one might have expected more assistance for the bowlers. It is worth looking at the average first-innings scores for day matches and day-night matches. They reveal something surprising. Early starts (not including the joke match between USA and Australia in 2004) produce a mark of 252 versus 260 for day-nighters. That's not as big a difference as you'd think.

Match odds

New Zealand are 1.794/5 and England 2.245/4. That means the visitors have shortened following their victory in south London. Fair enough, but were they convincing?

It's a tough question. With the bat, absolutely. With the ball, absolutely not. Our faith in them over two games has eroded slightly while our admiration for England grows. We are yet to see any sort of nous from New Zealand in the field. At least England have shown that - in game one - despite being blasted from line and length in the second game.

Five from seven day matches have been won by the side batting first. No rain is currently forecast.

Top England runscorer

Hales and Roy average 24 and 32 respectively in List A cricket in Southampton. Eoin Morgan, in blistering touch, looks to be the value. He averages a whopping 77 on the ground and has two tons to his name. He will be available at around 6.05/1 although you could play safe and back him for a fifty at around 2.111/10.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Martin Guptill hit an unbeaten 189 from just 155 balls in 2013 and he will fancy his chances of a repeat after finding form at The Oval. Good memories of a venue should not be sniffed at and he could warrant support at around 4.57/2.

Recommended Bet

Back E Morgan for half-century at 2.111/10

Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£170.10
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate
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