Ed Hawkins does not give the home side much hope at Edgbaston on Tuesday in the opening one-day international as he argues that the World Cup runners-up should prove too strong...
"In terms of experience, power and ability, man-for-man England appear to be hopelessly outgunned."
Back New Zealand at 1.645/8
England v New Zealand
Start time: 14.00 BST
TV: live on Sky Sports 2
It's out with the old and in with the new for England. In a radical approach following their disastrous World Cup they have dropped James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Ian Bell, Moeen Ali and James Tredwell. Chris Woakes is injured.
In come Mark Wood, who impressed in the Test series against New Zealand, the powerful all-rounder David Willey, Kent wicketkeeper-batsman Sam Billings and Surrey opener Jason Roy. They have each played a single ODI. Adil Rashid will be tasked with the spinner's role
Roy is expected to open the batting with Alex Hales, England's great white hope. James Taylor and Joe Root will probably bat at Nos 3 and 4 respectively. Then Ben Stokes and Eoin Morgan will be charged with firing up middle-order power. But don't be surprised if Stokes bats first down.
If there was any doubt as to the power of this Kiwi team - and there shouldn't be following their superb World Cup - then they provided a reminder against Leicestershire in a warm-up.
They were wobbling at 152 for five but managed to post a massive 373. Grant Elliott, who produced a brilliant innings in the semi-final victory against South Africa, and Luke Ronchi hit centuries at Nos 5 and 7.
Mitchell McClenaghan took four wickets in that game to prove that the Black Caps are not over-reliant on Trent Boult and Tim Southee. Spin will come from the grizzled competitor Nathan McCullum or Michael Santner, a highly-rated slow left armer.
New Zealand have gone from 1.68/13 to 1.42/5 to win the series since the market opened. England are 4.03/1 and the draw is 12.011/1. Our series preview is here and we are convinced England are in for a pasting.
New Zealand are 1.645/8 and England 2.526/4. Enjoy that price about New Zealand while it lasts because as the series progresses they are likely to get skinnier and skinnier.
If England thought the World Cup was bad - which included a hammering against New Zealand - then they this could be worse. In terms of experience, power and ability man for man they appear to be hopelessly outgunned.
New Zealand have three available batsman (Kane Williamson, Martin Guptill and Ross Taylor) in the top 20 runscorers in the world in the last 12 months, England have one (Root). Extend that to the top 50 and New Zealand record another four to England's one. The story is the same with the ball with Boult, Corey Anderson, Southee crowding out England's Steven Finn.
The first-innings average in the last 10 ODI played at Edgbaston which have not been affected by the weather is 257. Laying 250 or more would have paid off five times, however, so it would be wrong to reckon this is a corker to bat on.
Top England runscorer
There's not a lot to go on here in terms of international ground form. Morgan and Root average 19 and 17 in the last five years while Jos Buttler has a mark of just 8.50. They are 6.05/1 and 4.03/1 respectively. Stokes cold be as big as 7.06/1 and if so is worth an interest.
Top New Zealand runscorer
Guptill, top bat in the World Cup, should perhaps be half a point shorter than 4.57/2 to join Williamson as joint jolly. Brendon McCullum, who has one half-century on the ground from two attempts, will get plenty of support at 4.57/2. Taylor is 6.05/1.
Back New Zealand at 1.645/8
Ed Hawkins P/L
2014: +315.10 (ROI 27%)
2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice
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