Vince is mince
Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow reaffirmed their reputations as two of the worst value bets you can have in the ODI top-bat markets on Thursday. Against Ireland at the Ageas Bowl they both failed, downing multiple wagers.
An army of punters would have been on either man to take honours on what they would have thought was a flat pitch against a weak attack. Never has it been more important to know the record of the man you are punting on.
Roy and Bairstow's respective win rates are now at 18.7% and 19.2%. With odds of 5/2 and 12/5 Sportsbook rate them at 28.6% and 29.4%. No thanks.
For outstanding achievements to bad value, no-one collects the gong quite as often as James Vince. He may look pretty and there is much mirth on the social channels when he strokes his way to 20-odd and is then caught behind. But his paucity of runs is beyond a joke these days. He has never top scored in 14 ODIs and has one fifty. He is 9/2.
For all the talk of England's extraordinary batting depth, can it really be so good if Vince keeps getting picked? Another failure on Saturday should end Vince's light-blue England career.
Sam Billings has also played 14 ODI and his top-bat effort was his first. The 67 not out gives him a chance to usurp Vince. Perhaps he deserves more opportunities further up. The 14/1 Sportsbook offer is no surprise.
Sportsbook have pushed out Paul Stirling to 4/1 for honours. On win rate, that's a massive 20% points in our favour. We have to wager that, even though we were alarmed at Stirling's dismissal in game one.
His tame, and ugly, shovel to midwicket made it look as though he was out of form or the ball 'stopped' on the pitch. His head was also falling over to the right side. Keep stakes smart.
England top bat wins/matches
Bairstow 10 1t/52
England top bowler wins/matches
Rashid 6 10t/58
Willey 2 2t/21
Ali 3 5t/51
T Curran 3 1t/20
Ireland top bat wins/matches
K O'Brien 2/20
Ireland top bowler wins/matches
Rankin 1 3t/18
B McCarthy 1/8
Be wary of the 400
Sportsbook have rated England as 8/1 shots to make 400 or more in this game. It is a price which is likely to tempt some punters but the numbers don't stack up. In short, it should be bigger.
Since England's ODI revolution began in their batting they have busted the mark three times in 76 and, although that is hugely impressive, it's still only 4%.
More interesting is their run rate against the Associate nations in the study period.
England would need eight an over to make 400, a mark they have never achieved batting first or second against such teams. The best was the 7.94 against Afghanistan in last year's World Cup. Their run rate on Thursday against Ireland was 6.25, which would put them on course for more than 312.
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