Hawk Eye on England v Ireland First ODI: A Stirling chance

Paul Stirling
Stirling can biff it

Ed Hawkins mines the data to find out the value on the side markets for game one from the Ageas Bowl on Thursday...

"Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow both have 19% win rates on the market, which is extraordinarily poor for such highly-rated players"

Stand out edge

Many will look at Ireland's batting line-up for this contest, recognise just the one name and bet on him. Paul Stirling will be a fancy because he has little to beat.

Sometimes the lazy assumption can be the right one. Stirling has dominated this market and boasts a 42% win rate in the last two years. The 10/3 that Betfair Sportsbook offer, therefore, is a wager.

It is, of course, true that Stirling has blasted weaker attacks than this England one in that two-year period. The likes of David Willey, Saqib Mahmood and Reece Topley will provide a stiffer challenge to not just him, though. His colleagues will find it harder.

The Ageas Bowl pitch is expected to be good. It looked flat in the warm-up against England Lions on Sunday. Stirling made 53 from 55 balls so there's nowt wrong with his form.

We must mention Andrew Balbirnie, who also has an good record. Five wins from 19 give him a 26% win rate. Sportsbook's 7/2 is also value. Balbirnie top scored in that Lions match.

Harry Tector should make his debut and although we can't wager because we need a minimum ten-game study at the level, he is one for the future. Sportsbook go 6/1.

Ireland top bat wins/matches

Stirling 8/19
Balbirnie 5/19
WP 0/19
KOB 2/19
Wilson 1/9
McCollum 2/9
Tucker 1/8

Top Rankin

As you can see from the data below, Tim Murtagh has dominated the top bowler market for Ireland in the last two years. Murtagh has retired. Mark Adair, who has three wins in just 12 games, is also out.

That blows this one wide open for Boyd Rankin who is steady rather than spectacular. All of his three ties were alongside Murtagh. At 3/1, though, Sportsbook are rightly taking few chances.

Strike rates are instructive, then. The next best after Rankin (35.7) are Barry McCarthy (41.3) and Josh Little (43.2). They could be of interest at 7/2 the pair.

Ireland top bowler wins/matches

Murtagh 4 2t/16
Rankin 1 3t/18
Dockrell 2/10
Singh 2/10
Little 1/4
B McCarthy 1/7
Adair 3/12
McBirnie 1/14

Say it is so, Joe

In a game where England are as short as 1/9 with Sportsbook (as discussed in the full match preview), the hope for value on their tops will be strong. It's forlorn, though.

There is only one player from the top bowler and batter markets who is a wrong price - and even that comes with a huge caveat.

Joe Denly probably should not be in this England ODI team with younger more explosive talent available. And Sportsbook seem to agree with the 6/1 on offer for most runs.

Denly, however, actually has four wins in his 16 ODI. Before you load up, be aware. Denly has had two England careers. He was first picked in 2009 when he opened the batting, topping twice. His form back then actually warranted a decent run. The 2019 version is solid, though, in the middle order. He topped twice in South Africa.

Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow both have 19% win rates on the market, which is extraordinarily poor for such highly-rated players. The 5/2 and 12/5 respectively are terrible prices. Likewise Adil Rashid at 10/3 for top bowler.

England top bat wins/matches

Bairstow 10 1t/51
Morgan 7/57
Roy 9/47
Ali 1/51
Denly 4/16 (career)

England top bowler wins/matches

Rashid 6 10t/57
Willey 1 2t/20
Ali 3 5t/50
T Curran 3 1t/19
Mahmood 0/1

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