England v India 3rd ODI Betting: Tourists to steal it at the last
Ed Hawkins previews the decider from Headingley on Tuesday and expects a close, bat-dominated contest...
"We have suspected all along that India hold the edge (when they can be bothered) and they should be stung by the criticism to get their house in order for this one"
England v India
Tuesday 17 July 12.20
TV: live on Sky Sports
After game one England looked in danger of doubting their No-1 rating in the world. Not so after Lord's where they triumphed with surprising ease.
Batting first England looked to have posted slightly above par with 321. It was not an innings of the controlled recklessness that has made their batting the most feared in the world. Instead it was back to proper batsmanship.
Joe Root reminded everyone why it is so important to have variation in your line-up. It's not his game to launch it into the car park, instead to find the gaps and keep the scoreboard ticking.
Root's 113 from 116 was a masterclass and it held England together after they had been reduced to 86 for two with Kuldeep Yadav threatening again to run riot. David Willey's 50 from 31 balls also proved crucial.
With the ball, England proved they can keep it tight, a charge which is often levelled at them. Willey and Plunkett were excellent, with the latter claiming four wickets. Then Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid turned the tables on India, spinning away to claim three between them cheaply.
Raina could be dropped
For the second time on tour India produced a lacklustre showing in the second game of a three-match series. They were similarly becalmed in game two in the T20 before rediscovering their mojo.
At the break at Lord's India looked a good thing to chase down the total. The wicket was good and their batting was on form. And at 140 for three with Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina in they were well set for an assault. But the assault never came.
India appeared to lose interest in the chase. Strike rates of 57 from Rohit Sharma, 80 from Kohli and 73 from Raina suggest they thought it was beyond them.
Most bizarre of all was MS Dhoni's innings. Dhoni seemed to think it was a World Cup group match where net run rate was important. The explanation for his blocking and go-slow was that he didn't want India to be heavily beaten. Illogical.
Dhoni is bombproof but Raina could be the scapegoat. Dinesh Karthik might offer more in the middle-order.
Batsmen to the fore
There have been only nine ODIs played at Headingley since 2006. The average first-innings score in those matches is 300. More than 300 has been breached four times and the lowest score was Pakistan's 247 in 2016. England's 275 for 4 against South Africa in 2008 is the second-lowest. Last summer England made 339 for six and beat South Africa by 72 runs. We would expect both teams to bust 300 first up
India have the edge
The match odds market can't split the pair for the decider, just as it couldn't in the T20 series for the finale.
We have suspected all along that India hold the edge (when they can be bothered) and they should be stung by the criticism to get their house in order for this one.
It might not be for the faint hearted, though. This could be a run fest and the chaser may well have to go after 320-330. We note England's brilliance at going after big total but India, despite their implosion at HQ, are not too shabby, either.
Morgan at home
Eoin Morgan hit a century in that match against South Africa last year. Moeen also has ground form with 77 from 51 balls. Ali hit 45 not out the year before against Pakistan. Jonny Bairstow hit 61 batting at No 6 in the same game. Morgan is 5/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. Root is 3/1, Bairstow 11/4 and Moeen 20/1.
Kohli top dog
Kohli tops India's top-bat lists after he was denied back-to-back honours by Suresh Raina's one run. He is 12/5 with Betfair Sportsbook. Rohit is 11/4 and Shikhar Dhawan, who has looked fluent without laying down something big, is 16/5.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
Back India to win at [2.0] (1pt)