England v India 2nd ODI Betting: Good chance to bet England at odds-against

Eoin Morgan
Eoin Morgan has to lead by example
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Ed Hawkins looks at the odds for the clash at Lord's on Saturday and says the hosts are worthy of support...

England v India
Saturday July 14, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England exposed

England are likely to feel a little chastened after they suffered the sort of beating which No-1 rated sides are not used to. Game one at Trent Bridge, frankly, was not much of a contest and was a throwback to the bad old days for England ODI sides.

The hosts had been well set - as they almost always are - with their openers firing well. But the introduction of wristspin destroyed their chances of being competitive. Kuldeep Yadav's domination of their batting was potentially a depth charge to their hopes of claiming the series.

This series had always been a contest between England's batsmen and India's twirlers. Previously England had been excellent against wristspin with the best run rate in the last three years of any team. Kuldeep and Yuz Chahal had been dominant elsewhere. It was the acid test for both. India emphatically won the day.

Alex Hales has been ruled out of the ODI series with a side injury. Not that he was likely to play because of Ben Stokes' return.

India spinning it to win it

Kuldeep's six wickets were a record for a spinner in ODI as England were bundled out for 268. Just as Kuldeep inspired India to win the first T20 and set the tone for a series win, he could have done the same here.

With two games to go victory at Headquarters will secure them the series and give them a huge edge before the Test series starts. It is worth noting that Chahal, Kuldeep's spin partner, actually has more wickets in the last 12 months. So there is a significant double threat.

England are going to have to bust 330 against this India team because of the strength of their batting. Rohit Sharma's brilliant century and Virat Kohli's effortless half underlined this was a step up in class.

Batters have to go big

Here are the last 13 first-innings scores at Lord (1/2 denotes game won by side batting first or second): 153-2/328-1/251-1/309-1/300-1/227-2/220-2/272-2/280-1/246-2/265-1/277-1/235-2. As you can see there is a trend - the side batting first is going to have to at least post 280. England got bundled out for 153 against South Africa last summer as they failed to cope with seam and swing.

World's best worthy of support at odds-against

There has been a strong reaction to England's eight-wicket humbling. India are now favourites at [1.89] with England [2.12]. That's a flip flop from before game one.

Fair? Possibly. Yet although we were with India for Trent Bridge we did so, largely, because of price. These were two well-matched batting sides but we felt India had the edge with the ball because of Kuldeep and Chahal.

Now England are odds-against they are worthy of support. Of course we worry about the spin threat but, as we have said, the stats show that England have fared better than any team against that type of spin. So they are hardly a risk.

We are actually more concerned about their pace attack. The likes of Mark Wood, Liam Plunkett and David Willey are going to have to find what South Africa did last year to trouble India.

Rot and Morgan need to step up

England may need their best players of spin to come to the party here. Joe Root and Eoin Morgan are excellent against tweak and they have good ground form in their favour. Root is in need of a score as his limited-overs star continues to wane. He lost his place in the T20 team and it is perhaps a blessing for him that Hales, in tremendous form, has a niggle. Root is available at 4/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. Morgan is the same price and, when all fair, he should be at least 6/1. Jos Buttler is 11/2 to repeat his top-bat effort.

Rohit could dominate again

Rohit has back-to-back centuries from T20 to ODI and once he is in form he is often hard to stop. He is 13/5 with Betfair Sportsbook for top runscorer honours. Kohli is the 12/5 favourite. Shikhar Dhawan gets pushed out to 7/2 and that might be worth a nibble considering he was striking it pretty well in Nottingham. KL Rahul is overpriced at 5/1.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2018: +15.36pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l

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