England v Australia Third ODI Betting: Back hosts to get back into the series

Aaron Finch returns for Australia
Aaron Finch returns for Australia

Ed Hawkins previews the third contest between the two from Old Trafford on Tuesday with England needing to win to keep the series alive. They look decent value to do just that, he suggests...

"The gulf between the two has been reduced and although the odds have contracted slightly, England can be considered value for the first time"

Recommended Bet
Back England at 2.3811/8

England v Australia
Start time: Tuesday, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports 2


England are in a must-win situation already after a poor performance at Lord's followed a comprehensive defeat at the Rose Bowl. At the moment they are struggling to be competitive.

It would help if Eoin Morgan, the captain, started to get basic decisions right. Winning the toss and bowling at Lord's was not the brightest of moves.

Jos Buttler has been rested and replaced by Jonny Bairstow. This undoubtedly strengthens the hosts as Buttler had been in such terrible form with the bat - nought and four in the ODIs following an average of 15 in the Tests.

England look certain to make another change with left-armers David Willey and Reece Topley vying to replace Liam Plunkett.


Australia have been forced to shuffle their pack after losing three players to injury following the Lord's match. David Warner, Shane Watson and Nathan-Coultner Nile are all out of the tour.

Warner, who had his finger broken by Steven Finn, and Coulter Nile, suffering from a hamstring injury, are certainly losses which will be keenly felt.

All-rounder John Hastings and batsman Peter Handscombe, who have been playing for Durham and Gloucestershire respectively, have been called up as replacements while Aaron Finch has also been added to the squad.

Hastings and Handscombe have been solid rather than spectacular. The former has been miserly with the ball in the one-day cup and the latter averages 44 in the championship but without a ton.

First-innings runs

In the last ten years there have been six first digs which have not been hampered by rain, producing an average of just 232. That figure is low largely due to Sri Lanka's 67 last year. Australia made 315 there batting first in 2013 and there was another 300-plus total in 2006 when the Lankans were in better form.

Match odds

We have said throughout the series that England need some outside assistance and they look like they might get it for Old Trafford.

A toss bias and bowler-friendly pitch have turned up in the nick of time for the home side. The market is aware their chances have increased as England are 2.3811/8 with Australia 1.715/7.

Six from seven day-night matches have been won by the side fielding first which means that if Morgan gets the opportunity to choose what to do he must have courage in his conviction after the Lord's rick.

Although runs have been scored in Manchester in the past there is enough in the surface for the likes of Finn and the lefties to trouble Australia. England have skittled sides here in the past.

Australia have been weakened by their injury problems and as much as talent they will miss experience. Steve Smith now leads a youthful side shorn of its two most experienced men in Watson and Warner.

It all means that the gulf between the two has been reduced and although the odds have contracted slightly, England can be considered value for the first time. It might not threaten a series win but England suddenly have a sniff.

Top England runscorer

Morgan managed a half-century in England's defeat by Australia two years ago. He averages 49 at Old Trafford in four innings. Jason Roy averages 11.50 in two List A matches. Alex Hales and James Taylor have not played there before in one-day matches.

Top Australia runscorer

George Bailey got 82 from 67 balls in 2013 at the venue. He averages 28 there in two matches. He is 5.59/2. Smith is the 3.55/2 jolly. Finch is expected to be around 4.57/2.

Recommended Bet
Back England at 2.3811/8

Ed Hawkins P/L

2015: +£321.80
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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