Ed Hawkins previews the final game of a ding-dong series on Wednesday in Chittaging and expects another nailbiting affair...
"We do not doubt there will be thrills and spills. Bangladesh should make a great trade and we expect them to be short favourites."
Bangladesh v England
TV: live on Sky Sports
Bangladesh have called up Taijul Islam, the slow left arm, in place of Mosharraf Hossain. It is a like-for-like selection.
The hosts are buzzing. Perhaps a bit too much after captain Mashrafe Mortaza and Sabbir Rahman were sanctioned by the ICC for giving Jos Buttler a send-off.
Mashrafe was brilliant in Mirpur, hitting 44 from 29 balls with the bat and then taking four wickets. Mahmudullah's 75 was priceless.
At the start of the series we said England looked vulnerable at the top of the order because of the absence of Joe Root and Eoin Morgan. And for the second game in a row they found themselves in trouble.
They collapsed to 26 for four and from that moment the game was up. Buttler's rescue act was valiant while Adil Rashid and Jake Ball made things more respectable with a last-wicket stand.
England could consider giving Sam Billings a whirl with James Vince failing to convince. Liam Plunkett may also come into contention in place of David Willey.
The last ten first-innings scores (1-2 denotes match won by side batting first or second) at the Zahur Ahmed Chowdury Stadium read: 168-2/251-1/281-1/177-1/61-2/160-2/225-2/188-2/284-1/221-2. That is an average of 202. There has been only one score of 300 or more in 16 matches.
With the wicket stodgy, there is an opportunity on the total sixes market. Over/under 7.5 should be about 1.910/11 the pair. Backing under would have been a winner in six of the last seven.
Bangladesh are 2.915/8 with England 1.511/2. Considering the home side have a win last time out and arguably should have won the first, it would be fair to say they are value.
The series-levelling victory in Mirpur by 34 runs was probably what most might have expected from the series. A war of attrition won by Bangladesh's spinners.
Chasing 239, England had the squeeze put on them a by Nasir Hossain whose ten overs cost just 29 runs. The pitch should help the spinners again and there are two games of note from the past at the ground which add to the belief Bangladesh are value.
Last year South Africa were bowled out for 168 to lose by nine wickets - Shakib-al-Hasan took three wickets and Nasir was miserly - and in 2011 an army of spinners stifled England when they could manage only 225 batting first. They lost by two wickets.
There have been 16 ODI played in Chittagong and a heavy toss bias is present. Only six have been won by the chaser. However, when a day-night filter is applied there's an even split over the six games.
We do not doubt there will be thrills and spills. Bangladesh should make a great trade and we expect them to be short favourites (possibly 1.654/6 at some stage). The weather forecast is poor but even in a reduced affair we'd want to be on the bigger-priced team.
Regular followers of this column will not need a bet after we advised a 2-1 Bangladesh series win at 4.507/2.
Top Bangladesh runscorer
Tamim Iqbal, who was a little bit naughty with a shoulder-barge on Jonny Bairstow at the post-match handshakes, has consecutive fifties on the ground. He will go off around 4.03/1. Imrul Kayes is 3.55/2. Shakib will be 6.05/1 and Mahmudullah around 4.57/2.
Top England runscorer
We don't have great faith in that England top four (Roy, Vince, Duckett, Bairstow) so Ben Stokes, Buttler and Moeen Ali appeal at 6.05/1, 5.59/2 and a whopping 19.018/1. Moeen is criminally underused with the bat in this England set-up and he would be of far better use breaking up that inexperienced top four.
Bangladesh to win 2-1 at 4.57/2
Ed Hawkins P-L
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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