Bangladesh v England Second Test Betting: Tourists could be in trouble

Finn returns for England
Finn returns for England

They may have edged over the line in the First Test, but Ed Hawkins says the touring side will be nervous if they have to bat last in Dhaka from Friday, with the hosts likely to get a wicket prepared to their liking...

"Bangladesh would be crazy not to serve up a raging turner and take the fifty-fifty chance that they win the toss and get to bat first"

Recommended Bet
Back side batting first
Back Steven Finn to be top England bowler at 19/5 (Sportsbook)

Bangladesh v England
Friday, 05:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 2

The home side did remarkably well to get as close as they did in the First Test. That's one view. Another is that from 227 for five chasing 286 there should only have been one winner.

Bangladesh keep getting themselves into winning positions only to implode. Tamim Iqbal, the opener, has urged his team-mates not to be content with just being the plucky underdogs who, ultimately, fall short.

The bowlers, or rather the spinners, did their job. Mehedi Hasan, a teenage sensation, and Shakib-al-Hasan both took seven wickets in the match.

But Bangladesh will need a bit more from Shakib with the bat. His first-innings stumping when set was a moment he would rather forget.

Batsman Sabbir Rahman should be fit to play after suffering from a fever. Mossadek Hossain has been called up as cover.

England are set for changes because the tour of India follows almost immediately. Stuart Broad has been rested while management resisted the temptation to ask Chris Woakes to put his feet up.

Steven Finn will replace Broad. Considering Bangladesh struggled more with pace and bounce in Dhaka, he looks a fair bet at 19/5 with the Sportsbook to finish as top bowler in first innings. After discussion about whether England pick four spinners, England have gone for three. Time will tell if that is a mistake.

Zafari Ansari has been picked ahead of Surrey team-mate Gareth Batty meaning he will work in tandem with Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali. It seems harsh on Batty who bowled with the most control in Chittagong.

First-innings runs
The completed first-innings scores since 2010 read: 557-240-232-282-527-338-335-419-233. It is a healthy track for runs - as England found out in 2010 when Bangladesh posted that 419. The hosts still lost of course as England chased 209 with ease in the last innings.

Match odds
There is no toss bias at the Shere Bangla National Stadium but we would be amazed if it did not prove to be crucial in this last Test. The spinners will surely bowl like kings on a worn and crumbling surface on the last two days.

That would require some under preparation on behalf of the ground staff and, although it is frowned upon, Bangladesh would be crazy not to serve up a raging turner and take the 50/50 chance that they win the toss and get to bat first. If they have to bat last here, they will surely lose.

The question is, though, if England bat last will they lose? Well, do you think they would have chased 286 in Chittagong? Remember that Bangladesh's spinners claimed 19 of their 20 wickets.

There is a strong shout that Bangladesh will be value then at 5.49/2. England are 1.774/5 and the draw is 3.953/1. That last price is a tempting trade because of forecast rain on the first three days.

Rain dampens our enthusiasm slightly on Bangladesh because a wet ball or wet outfield is not conducive to spin. The best advice is to bet the side batting first. If it's England you can wait for 1.84/5 as we did in game one.

Top Bangladesh runscorer
Mominul Haque
has the best average of the hosts at the Shere with a mark of 50. He is 6.05/1, the same price as Shakib who has the most runs and an average of 45. Tamim Iqbal and Imrul Kayes are the joint favs at 5.49/2. Tamim averages 34 at the ground but Kayes only 16.

Top England runscorer
A century from Alastair Cook was key in England's victory in Dhaka in 2010. He made an unbeaten 109 and it is hard not to think that if Cook and Joe Root do not bed in, England will be in real trouble. Cook is 4.3100/30 and Root 3.7511/4.

Recommended Bet
Back side batting first
Back Steven Finn to be top England bowler at 19/5 (Sportsbook)

Ed Hawkins P-L

016: +176.82
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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