Ed Hawkins previews game two, also from Dhaka, on Sunday and wonders whether this time the home team's spinners can get a grip - and their batsmen, too...
"Bangladesh need to get more from their twirlers. They are going to have to put a squeeze on"
Back Bangladesh if they chase
Bangladesh v England
Sunday October 9 09:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Bangladesh are probably still wondering how they lost the first match. They were on cruise control having negotiated the major bump in the road of a big run rate and just needed to finish the job.
Then they imploded. Perhaps in the way that only a country still relatively young to the international game can. They were all style and no substance in the end.
Imrul Kayes and Shakib-al-Hasan may have been guilty of complacency at 271 for four chasing 310. But what are their team-mates' excuses? Bangladesh lost six for 17 in 39 balls. It is a major blow to punters' confidence.
England are one up but they might be two down. Injuries to Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow could weaken them further - let's not forget Alex Hales, Joe Root and Eoin Morgan are all missing.
Bairstow hurt his hip and Roy a shoulder and both had to leave the field. It could well be that they'll be strapped and sent out considering the paucity of options in the hut.
Sam Billings would automatically come in while Liam Dawson would have a good shout if Liam Plunkett was not considered fit. Either way, England would have a major batting order reshuffle on their hands.
Still, with performances of the calibre of Ben Stokes (a brilliant ton) and the five-wicket burst by Jake Ball they might not worry too much. Ball, on debut, took the key wicket of Shakib and Adil Rashid did the rest. Ben Duckett another debutant was also top-notch.
It's another game at Dhaka. If we include only matches involving Bangladesh and the top eight in the last two years the last nine scores (1-2 denotes match won by side batting first or second) look like this: 309-1/162-2/160-2/317-1/200-2/307-1/250-2/239-2/329-1. That is an average of 253. Before game one, you will also note chasers have been more successful. Really Bangladesh should have made it another.
Bangladesh and England will be about as you were before the first ball is bowled. The hosts weighing in at around 3.02/1 and England 1.491/2.
Despite Bangladesh's horrible collapse, we have to pretty much stick with the same strategy. They are worth an interest if they chase.
There are two reasons for this. Firstly, England are a terribly good chasing outfit and we'd back them to hunt down 320 here. And secondly, the dew factor. Gripping the ball looked tricky and that would nullify Bangladesh's spinners.
On that point, Bangladesh need to get more from their twirlers. They are going to have to put a squeeze on. Had they got Stokes out a little earlier - they did drop him twice - they might have been going after 20 or 30 fewer.
Mashrafe Mortaza said he wanted to bat first. Not sure Mash. We'll take on England defending again. But if that's too much of a leap of faith, we're sure Banglas will trade as jollies.
Top Bangladesh runscorer
Kayes' ton was a fine one - until he blotted his copybook with that crazy charge to Rashid to be stumped. He will go off as jolly. Shakib is Mr Reliable although we're amazed to see Soumya Sarkar dispensed with. Mistake.
Top England runscorer
It's not so much about who will top score as who will bat where. If Bairstow and Roy are both out, we need to be looking out for big prices on Moeen Ali and David Willey. Moeen is always a man for a crisis and looks sure to be shunted up. And why not give Willey his head as an opener in an emergency? He did it at county level and England have little to lose.
Back Bangladesh if they chase
Ed Hawkins P-L
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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