England v Australia Fourth ODI Betting: Toss bias gives England a great chance

Ed Hawkins
13 September 2013

Eoin Morgan has a 50-50 chance of victory in Cardiff if the toss bias is to be believed

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Ed Hawkins says that England should level the series if they bowl first under clear skies at Cardiff on Saturday.

"With the coin flip so crucial and the pitch bowler-friendly, it looks as though we have a 50-50 shoot-out on our hands"

Recommended bet
Back England at 2.3411/8

England v Australia
Start time: 10:15BST
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

England
Michael Carberry will keep his place as opening batsman despite 15 runs in his first three innings as a limited-overs international. Eoin Morgan, the captain, confirmed he would play in the next two games, reckoning he has been unlucky. "He's had a bit of a hard time of it to be honest," he said. "But he's experienced enough to know that it's swings and roundabouts." Carberry was run out in the last match at Old Trafford, another washout, for one. Joe Root could be rested for Luke Wright, who would offer more experience but Morgan said England picked their best side for the defeat in Edgbaston. Since then they haven't had the chance to put it right so they will probably be unchanged. That means young pacers Chris Jordan and Jamie Overton will have to wait for their debuts.

Australia
Australia lead 1-0 with two to play and they may be a little nervous that the weather has prevented them from securing the series. Fawad Ahmed was dropped for the last match for Josh Hazlewood and whether Australia stick with the same XI depends on the moisture in the pitch. Ahmed will not get much grip for his leggies if it is damp. It could be as rain was expected on Friday. Hazlewood, 22, is highly-rated Down Under and his right-arm pace may be more of a threat.

First-innings runs
Since 1999 there have been 15 one-day internationals played at Sophia Gardens. Of those, 13 have produced completed first-innings and 11 of them results. The average score in the first dig is 223. That is pretty low. Indeed, only three teams have busted 250 batting first. Pakistan scored 257 back in 2001 against Australia and lost. India specatcularly bucked the trend with two 300-plus totals. Despite the respective strengths of England and Australia being with willow in hand, it would be folly to ignore the facts and expect runs. In an ideal world England, who look the less powerful, would bat first and we would lay 250 or more.

Match odds
Australia have a poor record in Wales. They have played at Sophia Gardens four times and lost three, including the infamous defeat by Bangladesh. England have three wins in three with another three washed out. More important than historic team form is the toss result list. There is a heavy bias. Nine from 11 have been won by the side fielding first. That makes our job very easy: back England at 2.3811/8. With the coin flip so crucial and the pitch bowler-friendly, it looks as though we have a 50-50 shoot-out on our hands. We are not saying England are better than Australia, merely stating that, to skew football parlance, 'the conditions are a great leveller'. Australia are 1.738/11. Of course you could wait until the toss and then if Australia bowl first, pile in. But as value hunters we have to point out that England are the bet before then. The weather forecast is superb, insofar that no rain is expected.

Top England batsman
Carberry might not attract much support at around 5.509/2. Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen are expected to be favourites, trading at around 4.507/2 the pair. Trott top scored against India at the venue in 2011. Pietersen has only 35 runs in two innings. If the ball does zip around early on - and we expect it to - then it may be wise to focus on the men in the middle order. In that regard you won't do much better than Morgan, who appeals at 6.5011/2.

Top Australia runscorer
Shane Watson has ground form. He made 57 from 59 balls in defeat by England in 2010. But this does not look like a venue which suits blasters, who like the ball coming on fast and true. It could be a slow, niggly wicket. So forget Watson, Aaron Finch and Shaun Marsh. George Bailey has been in tremendous touch and catches the eye at 7.006/1. Michael Clarke, quite rightly, will be heavily supported, too.

Recommended bet
Back England at 2.3411/8