Ed Hawkins crunches the numbers to guide gamblers as Australia take on India in Sydney with the Kiwis waiting in the final...
"The reason for India’s hopeless displays in India has been a problem against the pace and bounce which Aussie wickets provide"
India's win percentage against Australia in Australia in ODI since 1991. That's just five wins from 26. With that number in mind, it makes the [3.25] about MS Dhoni's men look rather puny.
The reason for India's hopeless displays in India has been a problem against the pace and bounce which Aussie wickets provide. But in their winning streak to the semis, they have looked untroubled, unruffled and unfettered. Have they solved the problem?
It is hard to say because, in truth, the holders have not been tested by pace and bounce yet. They should have been against South Africa's attack, which was oddly listless.
But Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Johnson and Josh Hazlewood will provide a challenge they have yet to face in the tournament. Starc, by the way, blew them away in Melbourne in January with six wickets.
Starc's average in the tournament so far. He has the best economy rate (3.77) of any bowler with six wickets or more and the best strike rate (15.6).
Slightly annoying, then, for followers of this column that he is not the top wicket-taker after we advised backing him at [10.5]. He trails New Zealand's Trent Boult by one.
It would be something of a travesty (we're not talking through our pockets, honestly) if Starc was to be denied top spot. He has played one games less than Boult and given that was the washout against Bangladesh when he could have wreaked havoc, it is clear he is the world's best.
Still, we would advise laying off and claiming a very chunky profit by taking the [2.6]. It would be infuriating if he were to be denied by that one missed opportunity and we can't really ask for more than the chance to get out now with two games to go where, frankly, anything could happen.
It should be noted that the bustling Mohammad Shami is in contention, too. He has one wicket less than Starc.
Lay off M Starc top World Cup bowler at [2.6]
Rohit Sharma's average against Australia in the last four years. That includes a century against them in the last meeting in January when he was the only India player to stand up to Starc's onslaught.
Ed Hawkins P/L
2014: +325.10 (ROI 28.5%)
2013: +250.80 (ROI 25%)
To £10 level stakes, based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice
Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting
Australian Wallet Transfer
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