World Cup Semi-Final Team Guide: England closing in on the title

Ed Hawkins
06 July 2019

England under Eoin Morgan are beginning to motor

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Ed Hawkins admits that the hosts are going to take some beating as he rules out India and New Zealand for glory...

"India look to have significant issues which have yet to be truly exposed. They could get away with papering over the cracks but it is hard not think that the pressure of a semi-final, or final, will not force them apart"

England 3.052/1

Price differential pre-tournament: - 0.10
Batting average tournament rank: 2nd Strike rate: 1st
Bowling economy tournament rank: 3rd Strike rate: 4th

England's campaign is a huge success. This is their first semi-final in a generation. More importantly, they have managed to overturn their bowling fortunes, going from bottom of the economy rankings in the last two years to second. And their scoring rate, despite suggestions that they have been becalmed, is the best in the tournament.

The surprising element is their nerve. Or lack of it when chasing gettable totals against Pakistan, Australia and Sri Lanka. Jeez, that last defeat was a stinker and if they go on to lift the trophy, it is hard not to wonder what past World Cup winners would have done to that Sri Lanka second XI. Before the tournament they had an 85% win rate in the chase. Their warm-up loss to Australia also now takes on a different hue.

One suspects, however, that if they can overcome a tough semi-final against Australia then there could be no stopping them. Who knew that Jason Roy was the key to their mojo? Those crushing wins over India and New Zealand (England were playing knockout cricket don't forget) have reminded them they are the best in the world. This column laid them for glory purely on the relationship between their price and the woes in the field. We probably got it wrong and can evisage backing them in both their last two.

There is, of course, room for improvement. Jos Buttler's form is a bit of a worry while it remains to be see whether niggles to the likes of Jofra Archer, who has been a sensation, and Adil Rashid have any bearing.

Australia 3.1085/40

Price differential pre-tournament: - 0.25
Batting average tournament rank: 3rd Strike rate: 2nd
Bowling economy tournament rank: 5th Strike rate: 2nd

If England have evolved, Australia have, er revolved. It's been revolutionary stuff from the Aussies, who have been pretty much hopeless for two years but have hit upon a formula and, when beating the favourites at Lord's, looked World Cup winners in waiting.

David Warner has put a poor record in England behind him, not to mention the ball tampering row, to vie for top tournament runscorer honours, Aaron Finch, also in that race, has 'merely' carried on in rich vein and Mitchell Starc has the top wicket-taker section sewn up with 24.

Do they have a weakness? Sure. They should have gone bigger against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and England after a platform was built. When it comes to the crunch against fast runscorers in England and India in a possible final, that could be their undoing. It is something they have struggled with since the last World Cup.

What you can't accuse them of is being overly reliant on Warner and Finch. Against West Indies and New Zealand the middle- and lower-order got them out of the mire. ENgland, however, represent their toughest task yet..

India 2.85

Price differential pre-tournament: - 1.25
Batting average tournament rank: 1st Strike rate: 3rd
Bowling economy tournament rank: 4th Strike rate: 1st

India look to have significant issues which have yet to be truly exposed. They could get away with papering over the cracks but it is hard not think that the pressure of a semi-final, or final, could force them apart.

The most significant problem they have is the catastrophic loss of form by Kuldeep Yadav. The spinner came into this tournament averaging two wickets per game in the last two years. Considering he bowled almost exclusively in the middle of an innings, he was crucial to their gameplan.

MS Dhoni's finishing ability is also under scrutiny and the stats are showing that he is becoming a hindrance. One explanation of India's go-slow against England at Edgbaston was that those above him know he's a busted flush. With the talisman on the wane, there is a third worry. The No 8 position. Bhuv Kumar or Mohammad Shami are unlikely to get India home in something tight.

India should have sorted this out in the final year before the World Cup but they're doing it on the hoof. Witness KL Rahul now opening after Shikhar Dhawan's injury and Rish Pant dropped into the middle order in a move that resembles panic. Vijay Shankar, despite the injury, just didn't look up to it. Surely there's been too much chopping and changing?

New Zealand 10.09/1

Price differential pre-tournament: - 2.5
Batting average tournament rank: 7th Strike rate: 8th
Bowling economy tournament rank: 1st Strike rate: 3rd

New Zealand probably shouldn't be in the semi-finals. They are there by beating down on the minnows in the tournament and every time they have come up against a decent team, they have been beaten out of sight. Pakistan, for example. Their World Cup epitaph is likely to read: if Kane Williamson doesn't get a century, forget it. Look at that pathetic price cut from pre-tournament as to what folks think of them.

Martin Guptill, Colin Munro (so bad he was dropped), Henry Nicholls (his replacement), Ross Taylor and Tom Latham have been major disappointments. Just look at those batting rankings. Down among the dead men. They are third bottom on strike rate, for goodness sake. How are they going to live with the other three semi-finalists?

Their bowling has been exceptional. Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry have bowled with skill and pace but it's not going to be enough. They had the game won against the Aussies at the break but their batsmen, without nerve or courage, collapsed. Their only chance is bowling first on a green seamer and overcast conditions in the semi. But would they be able to chase 180-190?

If the final group games go to form, we should expect a blockbuster of a showpiece between England and Australia. Strap yourselves in.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2019: +25.1pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l