West Indies v Bangladesh: Windies overrated in the betting

Paul Krishnamurty
16 June 2019

Bangladesh opener Tamim Iqbal could let rip at Taunton

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Paul Krishnamurty says we could see massive scores at Taunton on Monday and reckons Bangladesh are cracking value to upset the odds...

"It is a long time since Bangladesh were regularly dominated by West Indies - in fact they've won six of their last seven encounters."

Back Bangladesh 5u @ 3.02/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 1.42/5

West Indies v Bangladesh
Monday, 10:30 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket and Sky Sports Main Event

While there is still a long way to go in the group stage, this match feels decisive so far as either side's tournament hopes are concerned.

The winner will still be two points behind NZ (theoretically the most vulnerable of the top-four), having played an extra game. The loser will need a miracle. If odds of 1.051/20 about a Completed Match odds are a guide, we should avoid another washout.

Windies hitters yet to deliver

We already knew Windies were inconsistent, unpredictable and capable of extremes. For a game and a half, they looked genuine title contenders, skittling Pakistan and restricting Australia to forty runs below par.

Since then it has all gone wrong. A world-class, deep, explosive batting line-up was blown away by first by Mitchell Starc, then England.

It seems hard to believe that, in at least one game, we won't see a big contribution from a line-up that hit 421 in a warm-up. Taunton - of which Chris Gayle has happy memories of the short boundaries - could be ideal.

Bangladesh yet to perform badly

Bangladesh also have the firepower to score big here. Shakib Al Hasan and Mushfiqur Rahim have been superb, contributing 401 runs. We haven't seen their explosive opener, Tamim Iqbal, fire yet either.

Their qualification hopes were hit hard by their previous, very winnable, match against Sri Lanka being rained off. They have performed respectably, even in comfortable defeat to the superior England and New Zealand, since beating South Africa.

Very high scores possible at Taunton

With those short boundaries in mind, Australia's 307 in the previous Taunton match didn't seem anything special but it proved comfortably enough. In fact given how wasteful Pakistan's bowlers were early on, 290 may have been par in those overcast conditions.

It is hard to make a confident prediction without seeing the skies and forecast but I reckon those disappointing totals may mean today's run line starts too low. This is one of the grounds where 400 is possible - I can envisage even 350 plus being 5.04/1 or better.

Whoever bats first, I will be backing a couple of 'overs' bands at odds-against in the 1st Innings Runs market. Neither side possesses any bowlers of the class in that match - Riaz, Amir, Cummins, Starc.

Match odds ignore recent Bangladesh progress

Still, we await a really close, exciting finish (Pakistan and India may have provided one by the time this starts). This one has definitely got potential and these odds are, for me, way too one-sided.

It is a long time since Bangladesh were regularly dominated by West Indies - in fact they've won six of their last seven encounters. Granted, they were against weaker line-ups than this but only two of those wins came on home soil.

They were superb in the Tri-Nations, beating Windies in all three matches and haven't done much wrong in the World Cup itself. At 3.02/1 they make strong appeal either as a win only bet or a back-to-lay. I'll go for the latter here, looking to cashout at 1.42/5.

Gayle hard to back on current form

Gayle starts favourite to top-score for Windies at 5/2 - far too short on his displays so far, even taking the Taunton angle into account. Shai Hope is preferred at 16/5 of the top order, with Shimron Hetmyer a plausible middle-order alternative at 13/2.

Shakib heads the Bangladesh list at 3/1, followed by Tamim Iqbal and Soumya Sarkar at 7/2.

Two picks for man of the match

Another way of backing these batsmen is to go for Man of the Match. One can never predict with confidence but my instinct is it will be won by a batsman hitting a big total. Let's try Hope and Iqbal, both at 10/1.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty