Sri Lanka v South Africa: Batting first can lead to a victory for the outsiders

Richard O’Hagan
16 March 2015

Batting first should lead to a Sri Lankan victory

Ton Up? Can Kumar get another hundred?

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After a month, the 2015 World Cup has finally whittled 14 teams down to eight. The quarter-finals open with a game which would be worthy of the final itself, as South Africa size up to Sri Lanka in Sydney. Richard O'Hagan previews what should be a great contest.

"Back Sri Lanka if they bat first, given South Africa’s two poor chases to date."

Sri Lanka v South Africa
Wednesday at 0330 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 2

Sri Lanka

No team has scored more hundreds in this World Cup than Sri Lanka's eight, of which the remarkable Kumar Sangakkara has contributed four in consecutive games, a new record. Unsurprisingly, that makes him the competition's leading run scorer to date.

The Sri Lankans have been bedevilled by injuries, with no fewer than five of their original squad having had to go home. This leaves them with a middle order which, while talented, is short of match practice, with Upul Tharanga having played two games and Kaushal Perera just one since the turn of the year. On the plus side, veteran spinner Rangana Herath should be fit again after the hand injury which he picked up earlier in the tournament.

South Africa

Of all of the qualifiers, the most baffling are the South Africans. On paper, they should be the strongest side in this tournament, but in reality they've lost two games batting second despite winning every match where they batted first by a significant margin.

In addition, most teams have been willing to rotate under-performing players out of the lineup (even England cottoned on to Gary Ballance eventually!), yet the South Africans have persisted with wicketkeeper Quinton de Kock as an opening batsman despite him having only scored 64 runs in six innings to date. Having stuck with him thus far expect him to retain his place, if only because the Proteas seem reluctant to saddle AB de Villiers with the burden of wicketkeeping as well as captaincy and batting. On the bowling front, the fit-again Vernon Philander will push for a recall, but probably only at the expense of the less experienced Kyle Abbott, meaning that South Africa will again make up their fifth bowler from a number of part-timers.

Venue and Conditions

With such a mouth-watering contest in prospect it is a shame that the weather in Sydney during this tournament has been so poor. Both sides have played here already, South Africa racking up a mighty 408 against the West Indies, whilst Sri Lanka lost to Australia despite one of those Sangakkara hundreds and a score of 312. If the weather holds, expect another high-scoring contest.

Match Odds

South Africa are 1.4640/85 favourites, with Sri Lanka the 3.1511/5 outsiders. Those odds can only be based upon squad strength at the moment and this should be a very close contest. Back Sri Lanka if they bat first, given South Africa's two poor chases to date.

Top Sri Lanka Batsman

Sangakkara reaffirmed last week that he is to retire from one day cricket this year, so every innings is potentially his last for his country in this format. Whilst a fifth consecutive century is almost certainly too much to expect, he is clearly the form batsman in this tournament so back him even at odds of just 4.03/1.

Top South Africa Batsman

De Villiers has been the man with the bat for South Africa and stands second only to Sangakkara in the top runscorer stakes. However, Test captain Hashim Amla is just as talented and has already made a hundred of his own in this World Cup, and at 4.3100/30 represents marginally better value than the one day skipper.