Pakistan v South Africa: Toss bias gives Pakistan hope

Ed Hawkins
05 March 2015

AB De Villiers has a fine record against Pakistan

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Ed Hawkins previews the Pool B encounter at Eden Park, Auckland in the early hours of Saturday and he expects the bowlers to dominate...

"Historically Pakistan have struggled against pace and bounce and there are few better at exploiting that weakness than Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel"

Recommended Bet
Lay 275 or more Pakistan first-innings runs at 2.47/5

Pakistan v South Africa
Start time: Saturday, 01:00 GMT
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pakistan
Pakistan will claim to have found their feet in the tournament with a 129-run win in their last outing. But it was only against the United Arab Emirates. The margin was about par for the gulf between the sides.

Hitherto Pakistan had been poor. They were despatched by India (normal service) and beaten at short odds-on by West Indies, who were at rock-bottom having lost to Ireland. And then they were made to look ordinary against Zimbabwe, getting out of jail at the death following an shoddy batting performance.

It is, therefore, difficult to gauge their confidence levels. But then, isn't that always the case with Pakistan? They are infuriatingly difficult to predict and seem to have a conveyor belt of talent who can turn in brilliant performances one day and then awful ones the next.

Ahmed Shehzad hit 93 against the UAE, which will at least take the pressure of Misbah-ul-Haq who often has to do all the runscoring on his own. Younis Khan has lost his place.

With the ball they are heavily reliant on Mohammad Irfan, Wahab Riaz and the wily spin of Shahid Afridi.

South Africa
South Africa have definitely found their feet, putting behind them the horrible, and out of character, slump against India. Twice in their last two innings they have passed 400. Okay, so it was only against Ireland and West Indies but they have retained the fear factor. They look more than capable of lifting the trophy for the first time.

They have made some tweaks to their line-up. JP Duminy missed out against the Irish and West Indies with a side strain with Rilee Rossouw stepping in. Vernon Philander, the pacer, made way for Kyle Abbot who promptly took four wickets.

Duminy is absolutely key against top eight sides. His finishing ability is important but he also offers another option with the ball. South Africa have yet to adequately replace Jacques Kallis as the all-rounder so they can ill-afford the loss of useful overs.

First-innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last 11 ODIs is just 226. That includes Australia's paltry 151 against New Zealand last week. There can be no doubt that this is a bowler-friendly surface. That's four totals under 207 in the last five matches. In the last 20 matches 15 sides have not busted 275 or more.

However, it wouldn't be very smart to blindly lay whoever bats first for 275 or more. What if South Africa bat first with their recent record? A far more favourable option is to wait until the toss and get against Pakistan. Historically they have struggled against pace and bounce and there are few better at exploiting that weakness than Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel.

Match odds
South Africa are 1.282/7 and Pakistan 4.57/2. The prices are about what you would expect them to be. As ever, the question is: can the gulf be justified?

Recent head-to-heads would suggest not. Pakistan won 2-1 in South Africa in 2013. The caveat, and it is a sizeable one, is that they did it with Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafeez and Junaid Khan. Their three best bowlers are all unavailable.

Most importantly, there is a toss bias. In 19 day-nighters which have produced a winner, 14 have been won by the team fielding first. In normal circumstances that would be enough to recommend the outsiders. But when Pakistan are involved we just can't stomach it.

Again the best option is to wait until the toss. If Pakistan do manage to field first then they could be considered good value.

Top Pakistan runscorer
If Pakistan's top order could get blown away by pace, it might be wise to look lower down the order for runs. Misbah, their top bat against the Saffers in the last three years, is obviously reliable in any situation and is likely to be no bigger than 4.03/1. But what about Afridi at prices in the teens? Or Umar Akmal at around 8.07/1?

Top South Africa runscorer
With 723 runs in 14 innings, AB De Villiers is comfortably South Africa's top runscorer against Pakistan in the last three years. He averages 65 and goes off short at 3.55. Hashim Amla, with a big ton against the Irish, is 3.052/1.