India v South Africa: Rohit off to a rollicking start

Ed Hawkins
04 June 2019

Rule out Rohit at your peril

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Ed Hawkins says King Kohli and Jasprit Bumrah should not be jollies on the tops in Southampton on Wednesday...

"If India chase, we’re not put off by the bias. It’s so flat – and they’re second only to England on win rates in the last two years batting second – they could get after 330 or so without breaking sweat"

India v South Africa
Wednesday 5 June, 10:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa in trouble

The damage done to South Africa's World Cup chances by Bangladesh on Sunday may only dawn on the squad when they begin to focus on this match and, with it, the horrible realisation that another loss would almost end their campaign.

It is, of course, too early to start writing off teams but we're sharpening the pencil when it comes to South Africa. Another loss would make it three in a row and would require Faf Du Plessis' team needing to win a minimum five of their last six to qualify for the semi-finals. A tall order considering their travails so far.

The hamstring injury to their most potent bowler, Lungi Ngidi, has further weakened an attack looking plaintively for the experience of the niggled Dale Steyn. Of greater concern has been their meek batting. Twice in chases they have surrendered, first against England going after a target which should have got their competitive juices flowing, then against Bangladesh. They were well set in the latter going after 330 and arguably they should have got home from 202 for three in the 35th.

If Steyn is not fit then South Africa's attack looks worrying one-paced. Dwaine Pretorius is the most likely man to replace Ngidi although they could pick another spinner in Tabraiz Shamsi.

India raring to go

India are fashionably late to the party. The coolest, most confident always are. While three teams have already played twice, India have been tuning up in the nets to show why they are rated as the most likely to down champions-elect England.

It is a little concerning that they have been kept out of the limelight. They haven't played for nine days and have had to endure bonding trips like paintballing. In their final warm-up against Bangladesh, though, they appeared to have solved a problem that has vexed them for a couple of years: who to bat at No 4?

KL Rahul's accomplished century should mean he gets the nod. Previously considered a little too flashy for such a responsible role, Rahul showed he could knuckle down in the Indian Premier League with a more structured approach.

There was also good news with Kuldeep Yadav back in the wickets. The top bowler in the world in the last two years was dropped in the IPL and he looked to be suffering a crisis of confidence. Kuldeep should reform his spin partnership with Yuz Chahal. India will choose two seamers from Mohammad Shami and Bhuv Kumar to partner Jasprit Bumrah.

Ready for a road

The first-innings average in Southampton in the 20 ODI matches played there (we don't include the farce that was USA v Australia) is 272. But with ODI hosted there since 2003 that figure doesn't tell the recent story. More than 300 has been busted five times in the last eight games and the average rockets up to more than 300 since 2010. Seven of the last 11 day matches have been won by the side batting first. England beat Pakistan by 12 runs last month after posting 373.

India could disappear quickly

India's price could contract rapidly if they bat first, particularly with that toss bias in mind. So the 1.511/2 could be considered value after 20 overs or so on what is a terrific batting wicket. Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan might not go hell for leather because they know they can really wear down a weakened attack.

But if India chase, we're not put off by the bias. It's so flat - and they're second only to England on win rates in the last two years batting second - they could get after 330 or so without breaking sweat. Whether South Africa get that is a different matter. But that's an ideal world for in-running punters.

Rohit and Kuldeep underrated

Finding a winner for top India bat is easy, eh? All you have to do is decide which of the three run machines will take honours. Virat Kohli at 11/5, Rohit Sharma at 10/3 or Shikhar Dhawan at 7/2? It's tough. So it might be useful to know on win rates in this market over the last two years what the odds should be. Here goes: Rohit is 9/5, Kohli between 12/5 and 5/2 and Dhawan 10/3. With a chunky edge in favour of Rohit we should bet him. Kohli, as good as he is, is shorter than he should be because, simply, he is the most famous.

The same 'rick' has been made on top India bowler. Jasprit Bumrah is the big name so he gets jolly status at 9/4. This despite a record over the study period which says he should be more like 11/2. We've yet to come across a bowler with a better record than Kuldeep Yadav who, in 44 matches, has 12 wins and 11 shared honours. He is priced at 11/4 by Sportsbook. He should be clear favourite and shorter.

De Kock still a bet

Quinton de Kock is still the standout value for top South Africa bat. He has a win rate which meas he should be more like 8/5. Sportsbook go 11/4. A flat wicket and his main rival, Hashim Amla, being out of sorts after being hit by Jofra Archer means he should have little to beat.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2019: +16.7pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l