Australia v Pakistan: Mercurial outsiders to upset the odds

Jamie Pacheco
10 June 2019

Wahab Riaz has been out of the Pakistan picture for a while but is quick and aggressive.

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We've seen nothing so far at this World Cup to suggest the gulf in odds is justified so go with the outsiders at a really big price, says Jamie Pacheco...

"Pakistan may be an erratic side but they seem like a happy camp, at least. They’re also very good in English conditions as evidenced by their Champions Trophy win two years ago with virtually the same side."

Australia v Pakistan
Wednesday June 12, 10:30
Live on Sky Sports Cricket and Sky Sports Main Event

Wholesale changes could be on the cards

Australia were exposed on Sunday. Pat Cummins was decent with the ball but Nathan Coulter-Nile and Mitchell Starc were expensive despite taking a wicket each and Glenn Maxwell and Adam Zampa were just as expensive... without taking any wickets at all.

Coulter-Nile's match winning 92 against the Windies kept him in the team for the India match but he can't be dining off that forever. He is after all in the side for his bowling, not his batting. It would be a huge surprise if one of Kane Richardson or Jason Behrendoff didn't come in for him ahead of this game. Zampa may have four wickets in three games but he's been going at seven an over. Nathan Lyon may well get a game here ahead of the Melbourne Stars spinner.

Aaron Finch wasn't best pleased about being run out by David Warner when well set but he's highly unlikely to drop the side's most dangerous batsman on the back of that. Shaun Marsh could come into the side at the expense of Usman Khawaja, though, if they decide to really shake things up.

This is a side packed with potential match-winners. Problem is, they don't play as a side.

Pakistan need to pick themselves up after rain-ruined match

Pakistan were left to rue a rained off match last week. They were heavy favourites to beat Sri Lanka and would have been banking on those two points, especially carrying the momentum they had from that win over England.

With everyone else from among the four or five favourites expected to beat Sri Lanka, the rain may just be what makes the difference between Pakistan making the semis or not.

Still, they may have lost that match and not many other sides will go on and beat England so it's all to play for, though that hammering against the Windies has really damaged their net run rate.

They're unlikely to change the side that beat England. Wahab Riaz in particular has history with Australia and will be out to prove a point.

Australia an inexplicably short price

Australia have won nine of the last 10 matches they've played against Pakistan since the last World Cup. That includes a 5-0 hammering in the UAE in an ODI series in March.

So Australia have to be the bet at 1.422/5, right? Wrong. Pakistan were missing key players in that recent ODI series, none more so than skipper Sarfaraz Ahmed. A bit like schoolkids misbehaving when the teacher is away, Pakistan are the sort of side who won't have been so focused with their regular boss not in charge. The likes of the super-experienced Mohammad Hafeez weren't around for that series, either.

There's also a theory that Australia were a more united side back in March without Warner, Starc or Steve Smith. They're all great as individuals but then again, it's not individuals who win you World Cups, it's team efforts.

Warner's run out of Finch won't have helped the mood in the camp while his 56 off 84 and Smith's 69 off 70 in such a high-scoring match was at best done with net run rate in mind, at worst a case of players more fussed about getting runs to their name than helping their team chase a huge total. Ultimately it cost them the game because once the all-rounders came to the crease, they were too far behind.

Pakistan may be an erratic side but they seem like a happy camp, at least. They're also very good in English conditions as evidenced by their Champions Trophy win two years ago with virtually the same side.

Pakistan have to be the selection, especially after that brilliant performance against England. Come say midday tomorrow that price of 3.412/5 may start to look very big indeed.

Don't rule out Carey at a huge price

It's all pretty tight at the top (of the betting) for top Australia bat. With World Cup pedigree and as the top two runscorers in the team so far, you can see why Warner (3/1) and Smith (10/3) are first and third favourites. Sandwiched between them is skipper Finch, who is 16/5.

The stand-out price though is Alex Carey at 22/1. He was not out on 55 against India and looking great; he had already scored an extremely useful 45 in the match before that against the Windies. The potential problem is his batting position at seven. That said, he could well be promoted ahead of Stoinis for this game or it may also be that Pakistan's fast bowlers tear through the top order like the Windies did and that he doesn't have much to beat, wherever he comes in. He's certainly worth a punt.

Cummins the hour, cometh the man?

Starc is 9/4 for top bowler honours with Cummins at 3/1. Starc is the fancier name and has one more wicket (seven) than Cummins this tournament. But over the years Cummins has proved to be just as prolific a wicket-taker.

Zampa is out of form and Lyon will be coming in from the cold if he plays at all. Coulter-Nile isn't bowling well either and if he's replaced, Behrendoff and Richardson have the same issue as Lyon in terms of not having much game time under their belts. It's not impossible that they come up with the goods, just unlikely. And besides, we don't know which of the two of them might play.

It could be a straight shoot-out between Starc and Cummins therefore. It was actually Stoinis who won this heat against India on Sunday with two wickets so there may be some takers of the 6/1 on offer about him, but if you want to play this market, go with Cummins.