Ed Hawkins prefers top batsmen bets to a risky St Lucia wager in the Caribbean Premier League in Port of Spain tonight...
"Fletcher is the only thing that resembles reliability with a bat for them. His win rate in the last two years is 40%"
Trinbago Knight Riders v St Lucia Stars
Sunday 8 September 17.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Bravo out of tournament
Trinbago Knight Riders are two from two but they have been rocked with the news that captain Dwayne Bravo will miss the tournament because of the finger injury that kept him on the sidelines so far. Bravo said that he couldn't move his fingers and that recovery would take two months.
Kieron Pollard has been handed the armband instead and Trinbago haven't missed Bravo. They haven't missed his brother Darren or opener Colin Munro, either, as they have notched wins over St Kitts & Nevis Patriots and Jamaica Tallawahs respectively. The latter was arguably the most impressive.
They scored a whopping 191 and even saw off a typical late assault from Andre Russell to win by 22 runs. The architects were opener Tion Webster, who hit 66 from 49 balls, and Sunil Narine who claimed two cheap wickets.
Lendl Simmons has failed twice as opener and this will be his last chance. Munro is due to return from New Zealand duty after this game. Trinbago have also been boosted by Ali Khan's return to fitness although he looked rusty against Jamaica.
St Lucia not to be trusted/h2>
The Zouks were beaten in game one by Guyana Amazon Warriors. It's a tough place to go, of course, and they shouldn't be too down about failing to get the points but the manner of their performance was alarming.
Twice they were in charge of the game. Twice they let Guyana back in. They had chipped away successful with the ball after getting the Providence toss bias on their side and with Guyana struggling at 98 for six a gettable target was in sight. Then Keemo Paul and Chris Green took them to the cleaners and posted 155.
In reply they were well set at 82 for three in the tenth. But the middle order provided no resistance or gumption and by the 16th over, when they should have been applying the finishing touches, they were seven down for 109. We expect them to be consistently flaky with the bat.
The last 12 first-innings scores at the Queen's Park Oval (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 191-1157-1/180-1/170-1/203-1/223-2/195-1/118-2/147-2/156-2/152-2/158-2. That's an average of 170. It looks a cracking wicket at the moment and 160 would appear to be a minimum. Well, unless you're batting first playing St Lucia.
Prices look right/h2>
Trinbago are [1.57] and St Lucia [2.62]. There's not much fun to be had at the odds unless you're prepared for a speculative wager on the visitors. Shocks do happen, of course, and in this chaotic format there will be algorithms and ratings that insist that Trinbago are to be taken on. But we have so little faith in the fly-by-night Stars that we'd rather take a risk on the top-bat or bowler markets.
Williams pips Fawad/h2>
Fawad Ahmed had a 38.4% hit rate for top bowler last season for Trinbago. This year he finds himself playing against is old team-mates. That knowledge of the pitch should assist us in a bet on him to cop for the Zouks. Sportsbook go 3/1 which is 13.4 percentage points in our favour. The problem with the wager is Kesrick Williams at 10/3. Over a longer study period of two years, Williams has one of the highest win rates in the tournament at 42%. The 10/3 should be more like 11/8. Despite knowledge of conditions, we have to go with the bigger edge.
Fletcher value holds/h2>
We're going to keep faith with Andre Fletcher for top Zouks batsman. He is the only thing that resembles reliability with a bat for them. His win rate in the last two years is 40%. Sportsbook rate him at 27.8%. Pollard is still value at 5s for Trinbago.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l