Ed Hawkins previews a possible Caribbean Premier League final dress rehearsal from the Queen's Park Oval early on Tuesday...
"We want to be on the team with the unbeaten run, the team that has proved it be destructive batting first or second, the team that has at least eight overs of spin which, on economy rates, is not going to go for more than 52"
Trinbago Knight Riders v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Tuesday 1 October 0:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Holders Trinbago Knight Riders have lost two of their last three (the other being a no result) and the sheen of superiority they have enjoyed is looking a little grubby. They have had significant problems keeping things tight in the field.
Last time out against the Barbados Tridents they suffered again. JP Duminy got hold of their attack to post a tournament record for fastest fifty as Tridents leaked 192. Their batting then folded under the strain, being bowled out for 129.
That can happen. When one discipline is falling apart, the others start to creak, too. Trinbago would dearly love to find some form before the play-offs. They need just one win from their final three to ensure they move above St Kitts & Nevis Patriots to finish second.
Sunil Narine has been suffering from a recurrence of a finger injury but is not expected to miss out. Chris Jordan, a replacement for Muhammad Hasnain, has bolstered the bowling group.
Guyana are seven from seven and a win from their final three will guarantee them top spot. No outfit team has got close to them yet as they have thrashed team after team.
They beat the Zouks by eight wickets, lost only two wickets in a small chase against the Tridents, beat Jamaica by 81 runs, the Patriots by seven wickets...we could go on.
Although it is their spin bowling unit - Imran Tahir, Chris Green, Qais Ahmed - who entice, Guyana are grateful to two breakout stars. Brandon King, the opener, and Romario Shepherd, the pacer, have had fantastic campaigns.
Shepherd's form has kept out Ben Laughlin, who looked a shoo in to be a fixture. This has allowed them to play three spinners at time. King has been so hot that Nic Pooran, their x-factor player in the middle order, has barely been required.
170 or more required
The last 13 first-innings scores at the Queen's Park Oval (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) read: 168-1/191-1/157-1/180-1/170-1/203-1/223-2/195-1/118-2/147-2/156-2/152-2/158-2. That's an average of just shy of 170. In recent games there's been a bias for the side posting a score and defending.
Guyana the bet
Trinbago are [1.96] and Guyana [1.97]. The market can't split these two. We can.
We want to be on the team with the unbeaten run, the team that has proved it be destructive batting first or second, the team that has at least eight overs of spin which, on economy rates, is not going to go for more than 52. Trinbago could struggle, therefore, to post that par score.
The hosts are conceding an average of 9.2 runs per over in this tournament. Only Jamaica (9.7) have a worse record in the field. Why would we want to bet a team at the odds with that against them?
Perhaps there's an idea intensity will be low for this game. After all, if you subscribe to the view these are the best teams in the tournament, a final appearance could mean they play each other three times in less than a week.
KP the nuts
Lendl Simmons and Colin Munro are sharing top bat jolly status for Trinbago at 13/5 respectively. When we've had 3s about Munro, who despite his excellence in this tournament for the past three seasons it remains tough to take something shorter. Kieron Pollard appeals at 5s, though. This could be the sort of game where he needs to lead a rescue act after Guyana's bowlers have done damage up front.
Shimron Hetmyer is the 11/4 favourite for Guyana followed by King at 13/5. Pooran continues to catch the eye at 7s. He's going to be required at some stage.
Sportsbook make Trinbago 10/11 favourites in a sixes match bet with Guyana who are 11/10. There might be some value in the visitors, although we insist there is limited relationship between a good team and six hitting. Often they don't require muscle in that context. Trinbago have hit 67 this season, Guyana 57.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
Back Guyana Amazon Warriors [1.97] 2pts
Back Kieron Pollard top Trinbago bat 5/1 (0.5pts)