Ed Hawkins says punters should stay with the Kiwi hitter in the Caribbean Premier League on Tuesday
"Patriots made it two wins in six against the St Lucia franchise in a game low on quality. That's no prep for the champions who are four from four"
St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Trinbago Knight Riders
Tuesday 17 September 23.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
The Patriots, if they are true to their moniker, will be gung-ho and frothing at the mouth for this one. They'll believe that they can beat anyone. And, just like their nickname suggests, they might be proven to be hopelessly naïve.
Hey guys, you've only beaten the Zouks okay? They made it two wins in six against the St Lucia franchise in a game low on quality. That's no prep for the champions who are four from four.
At least Evin Lewis found some form. And we like their front three of him, Devon Thomas and Laurie Evans. Evans is proving you don't have to have big bat deal or play for a fancy county to be more than useful in the T20 merry-go-round. Their weakness is the middle- to lower-order.
And a nod, too, to Akeem Jordan who claimed four scalps to end any hopes that the Zouks had of posting a big total. Patriots chased pretty easily.
Beware lurking power
The Knight Riders are oozing power at the moment. Last time out against Jamaica Tallawahs they posted a record domestic T20 score - a monstrous 267 for two.
One might have thought that the return of Colin Munro from New Zealand duty might have given them a headache batting order wise. Not a bit of it. They kept faith with Lendl Simmons and Sunil Narine and the pair delivered.
Munro then came in and blasted it to all parts. He and Simmons put on a 124-run stand from just 56 balls.
If Knight Riders get a foothold in an innings they are going to be difficult to stop because they have muscle in the wings. Kieron Pollard, Jimmy Neesham and Denesh Ramdin are all dangerous.
Batters starting to slow down
The first innings scores at Warner Park, Basseterre (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) read: 138-2/121-2/186-1/241-2/168-2/206-2/199-1/168-2/162-2/208-1/168-2. We've had two poor batting displays in the last two games. Could things be getting stodgy for the batters?
Tough to see Trinbago slipping up
Trinbago are rated [1.66] shots for this one with the Patriots [2.38]. Can we take on the jollies?
We're anxious about that prospect because Trinbago have shown few weaknesses. They did show a chink or two in the narrow 11-run win over the Patriots early on. Or maybe we're trying to find an edge where there isn't one.
The same goes for this thought 'Trinbago have to lose sometime'. Yes, but they only lost twice in the groups last year.
Narine could be the game-changer. One suspects the Patriots struggle with nuance and just want to blast it. Spin, therefore, could be their undoing.
Munro for match gong?
Colin Munro had a 42% win rate in CPL top bat markets in the last two years and he copped first game back this year. Sportsbook are on to him with 13/5 available from 3s. Not quite short enough, though, is it? We're also eyeing the 9/2 they offer that he top scores in the match while we're surprised last term's player of the series is not man of the match jolly. He's 10s. Lewis, of the Patriots, oddly gets top billing on that market at 7s.
We were quite keen on Sheldon Cottrell for top Patriots bowler this season. But he's not firing after a niggle. Since coming back in from the treatment table he's not looked himself so we're going to swerve the 3/1. Jordan, who downed the Zouks, gets a 7/2 quote.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l