Ed Hawkins previews another possible Caribbean Premier League runfest at Sabina Park on Sunday evening...
"From those prices, we’re keen to get against the Tridents because we don’t see much difference between them and the Tallawahs in terms of faults"
Jamaica Tallawahs v Barbados Tridents
Sunday 15 September, 18:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Tallawahs turn to Dernbach
The Tallawahs are having a dreadful time of it. It's now four defeats in four. They also have the ignominious 'honour' of having conceded a record Caribbean Premier League total against the St Kitts & Nevis Patriots, only for two games later to concede a record in franchise history. Trinbago smashed 267 against their woeful attack.
Do we feel sorry for them? Nope. They've piled all their resources into Chris Gayle and Andre Russell, leaving them short on overseas players and bowling stock. There is no international class spinner to speak of.
In an attempt to remedy their problems, they have signed Jade Dernbach. This is a bowler who has an economy rate of 8.51 in his career. In this year's Blast he went for 8.9 an over and managed six wickets in 13 matches.
Andre Russell missed the defeat by Trinbago with concussion. The injury - sustained against St Lucia - has come at a bad time with the Tallawahs in action three times in four days. He looks certain to miss this contest as well.
Tridents reliant on spin
The Tridents have won one and lost one against the Patriots and Guyana respectively. Their success against the Patriots was something of a surprise because we're not entirely convinced by their balance.
Batting first, they went hell for leather with Johnson Charles, Leniko Boucher and and JP Duminy striking well. That's a bit of an understatement as far as Duminy is concerned, actually. He hit 43 from 18 balls to propel them to a match-winning 186. Alex Hales now has two failures out of two.
The most impressive aspect of the win was how a weak-looking bowling attack got the job done and never looked in danger. The key was Sandeep Lamichhane. The Nepalese spinner took three wickets as Jason Holder gave him a full four overs. In defeat by Guyana Holder had given him just one over although there were suggestions he had been unwell.
Lamichhane may have to do a lot of the work on his own. As the tournament progresses we expect Tridents to come under pressure defending.
This has to go down as an absolute road after the Trinbago onslaught. Sabina Park is firm and true, allowing batsmen to free their arms and go for the ropes. The first-innings scores in the last two tournaments (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) read: 267-1/170-2/149-2/157-1/208-1/172-2/178-1/175-2. It holds, too. Maybe 180 might not be enough. Jamaica's bowling woes aside, they approached the chase with gusto.
Hosts could get off the mark
Before the Trinbago match we wondered whether Jamaica were bad enough to lose four in a row. So, are they bad enough to lose five? The market is a little unsure. Early prices have seen them installed as [1.80] favourites but, in time, we expect this to be a choice affair.
From those prices, we're keen to get against the Tridents because we don't see much difference between them and the Tallawahs in terms of faults. As for strengths, Tallawahs probably have the edge with the bat. Glenn Phillips, the Kiwi hitter, has looked good so far. And they made a decent fist of the chase against Trinbago, falling short by 41 runs.
Hales still not value
Gayle gets a 9/5 quote for top Jamaica bat with Phillips more like our kind of price at 11/4. But the one which really stands out is Rovman Powell is 7s (Sportsbook). In the absence of Russell, Powell is going to have to step and the extra responsibility might give him an edge. For Barbados, Hales is out to 5/2. The drift needs to keep going with a hit rate of around 20% in his career.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
Back Jamaica at [1.83] or better (0.5pts)