Ed Hawkins previews the clash from Providence early on Sunday with the Patriots needing to hit back...
"The best advice is to look for value in-running about the hosts. A fast start from the Patriots - reliant on Lewis for this one - should bump the price up again"
Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Sunday 8 September 01.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Warriors well balanced
Guyana are up and running after a solid opening victory against St Lucia, even trumping the Providence toss bias into the bargain. The balance of their XI looks good now we've seen it in the flesh and a knockout spot is surely the minimum of their aspirations.
What was pleasing about game one for them was the way they split dangermen Shimron Hetmyer and Nic Pooran, batting at 3 and 5 respectively. True, Pooran disappointed with a duck but there would have been a temptation to open with both for an explosive fast start. Instead Brandon King and Chandrapaul Hemraj have been given the chance to establish something. Keemo Paul and Chris Green showed they bat deep, too.
It is with the ball they are most impressive. Green and Shadab are the spinners with Adelaide Striker Ben Laughlin provided much-needed smarts in the pace department. At the moment it is difficult to see where Imran Tahir is going to get a game when available with Shoaib Malik also a must in the middle-order anchor role.
The Patriots are ruing two missed opportunities against the holders, Trinbago Knight Riders, in their first game. They let the game slip through their fingers twice.
Bowling first they had done a lot of the hard work with Trinbago at 20 for three. They let them get away. Conceding 157 from such a position should ring alarm bells. Worse was to come with the bat. The platform had been built at 70 for one but once Evin Lewis was out they fell away. Including Lewis' wicket they lost four for six. That's unacceptable.
In a helter-skelter format such as T20 it's normal for a bowling side to lose the thread. But to do the same with the bat in the same game means Patriots have a big black mark against them.
If the toss goes against them in Providence, they could repeat. We've been concerned about their lack of spin class since before a ball was bowled and on this sort of wicket that could be exposed.
Trinbago's 157 against St Lucia was one shy of the average first-innings score in the last two years (most recent first-innings scores first, 1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second): 157-1/191-2/122-2/154-2/173-2/185-1/141-1/146-2. The chaser toss bias took a minor hit from a pre-game 67%. It's still one of the biggest around and it would be wrong to disregard it.
Too close to call
Guyana are [1.73] with the Patriots [2.34] Obviously we can't recommend a bet pre-toss. For a start, who knows how low Guyana will go if they chase? A shortening to [1.50] could be on the cards.
The best advice is to look for value in-running about the hosts. A fast start from the Patriots - reliant on Lewis for this one - should bump the price up again. Likewise if King and Hemraj struggle to impose themselves in a chase early on. These two might need time to get their rhythm as a pair.
Patriots bowling strong
Sheldon Cottrell and Rayad Emrit form a potent partnership for the Patriots. They shared top-bowler honours in their game against Trinbago with three apiece. That wasn't surprising. Before the game Cottrell and Emrit had 46.6% and 44.4% win rates on the market in the last two years.
Cottrell is 13/5 and Emrit 10/3 with Sportsbook. You could bet both but Emrit has plenty to prove to Guyana after he had the captaincy taken from his last season when a Warrior.
There's a smidge of value on Lewis for top runscorer for the Patriots. On career form he should be around 5/2 so the 13/5 from Sportsbook appeals. He had a stinker last season, though, with a nine per cent win rate. The year before he was up at 30%. The most reliable last term was Devon Thomas with a 30% mark. Thomas is at No 5 and gets a 5/1 quote.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l