Ed Hawkins previews a close contest in the Caribbean Premier League on Monday night but the match odds market disagrees...
"Phillips has top scored three times and shared honours once in Jamaica's seven games. On that form he should the 12/5 jolly instead of Chris Gayle"
Barbados Tridents v Jamaica Tallawahs
Monday 23 September 23.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
The Tridents were beaten against Guyana Amazon Warriors on Sunday night. For a spell, they looked like putting the runaway leaders under pressure but they fell away badly. It was their third defeat in five.
When Alex Hales and JP Duminy were striking well at 63 for two in the seventh, a challenging total looked on the cards. The Warriors then squeezed with spin and the Tridents are not the first - or last - to fail to come up with the answers. They posted 138.
Rain curtailed Guyana's reply. They had only needed 70 off the first 11 but were well ahead of the target when play was stopped. The ease with which Guyana got home exposed, once again, Tridents' big weakness: their lack of bowling depth.
If Jason Holder doesn't make an early breakthrough or Sandeep Lamichhane has little to bowl at, they're in big trouble. Duminy is a bright spot, though. His batting has been superb and he can chip in with tidy overs.
Now or never Tallawahs
Jamaica have got to buck up and they have to start now otherwise their hopes of a play-off spot are going to slide. Despite one win in seven they are only two points behind the Tridents in fourth. Two points here will be huge.
We understand why they made such a poor start. The balance of the XI was wrong. But they looked to be getting decisions right after getting off the mark against Tridents by pairing George Worker and Zahir Khan as spin twins, Chadwick Walton showing form with the bat and Jade Dernbach giving them options at the death.
With Andre Russell returning after concussion, they looked primed for an assault. They lost their next two, a hammering against Guyana and a desperately disappointing effort against St Kitts & Nevis Patriots.
Trinbago could go big
This is the second match to be played at the Kensington Oval this term. The first-innings scores in the last two tournaments (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) read: 128-2/136-1/195-1/158-1/135-2/165-2/151-2/128-2/147-2.
Remember that all of the 2017 matches were won by the chaser. And all but one of the 2018 matches were won by the team batting first. Best not to read too much into the below-par score by Tridents against Guyana. Last season they were bowled for 59 by the Warriors there so it's an improvement if nothing else.
Tallawahs a bad bet
The match odds market obviously agrees with our assessment that the Tallawahs are underperforming. But would you back them at [1.67]? No. Of course not.
This is a choice affair and, before looking at the odds, we were preparing for a bet on the Tallawahs at [1.83]. But no. We're forced to think again, specifically about the lack of work ethic and responsibility, bar Glenn Phillips, that the Tallawahs show. Think Royal Challengers Bangalore and you're close. And we would never, ever bet them at odds on.
Phillips puts Gayle in shade
Phillips has top scored three times and shared honours once in Jamaica's seven games. On that form he should be the 12/5 jolly instead of Chris Gayle with Sportsbook. Phillips is 16/5. Gayle has one win all season and, although he has been value each time in terms of two-year data, we've broken our own rules with him because his temperament can bust any algorithm.
Sportsbook have spotted the importance of Duminy for Tridents and go 3s. Hales is having a poor time of it, unsurprising because he has been back and forth on a jet plane after Nottinghamshire's Blast semi-final loss.
Lamichhane has been our go-to man for top tridents bowler this term but we don't want to play at 13/5. Instead we'll go for a bet on top Kamaica wicket-taker. Russell is underrated at 4s and we have him a smidge shorter. He doesn't have a huge amount to beat, either.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l