Paul Krishnamurty previews Friday's important clash from the Optus Stadium, where either Scorchers or Strikers' title bid will take a big step forward...
"One market in which Scorchers do appeal is Most Sixes at 11/10. Considering they have hit 15 more in the tournament...outsider status is hard to justify."
Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers
Friday, 10:10 GMT
Live on BT Sport
Both sides on course for play-offs
This is a huge game for Scorchers. Depending on earlier results, winning could secure a play-off spot. Losing, on the other hand, sets up a tense finale against Thunder.
They have every reason to be confident, having just thrashed Thunder to boost their run-rate. Indeed only runaway leaders Stars have beaten Scorchers in their last six matches.
Strikers title bid boosted by Carey return
Strikers are already all but there, needing one win from two to secure a top-three spot, meaning one fewer play-off to negotiate. Their last game is at home to struggling Hobart.
Form couldn't be better, having just inflicted a rare defeat on leaders Stars for a third straight comfortable victory. Rashid Khan and Peter Siddle are both in contention for Top Tournament Wicket Taker, while the batting has been boosted by Alex Carey's return from international duty.
Par at the Optus is 175-180
After 14 Big Bash matches at the Optus Stadium, seven each have been won by the defending or chasing side. They include a couple of sub-90 first innings totals, but generally this is a high scoring ground.
The 210 or more 1st Innings Runs band has landed twice. Six totals landed between 174 and 182, offering a big clue to the par score. Three were successfully defended, three were chased down. 153 in the last match wasn't nearly enough.
In last season's corresponding fixture, Strikers were skittled for 88. Jhye Richardson took 3-7 and he's 5/2 to be Top Perth Wicket Taker again.
In-form sides hard to separate
More generally, it takes a lot of runs to win here. Both sides are well-equipped. Scorchers have three batsmen with more than 300 runs - Mitchell Marsh, Josh Inglis and Liam Livingstone. For Strikers, Jake Weatherald and Jon Wells have passed 300 while Alex Carey is on 299.
This is a very tight match to call. If anything I'd say Scorchers represent a tiny bit of value at [2.15], at home, with their batsmen in great form. Not enough to recommend a pre-match bet though. Better, perhaps to look to back the outsider in play. I can see a thrilling chase of 180.
Scorchers stronger in maximums department
One market in which Scorchers do appeal is Most Sixes, at 11/10. Considering they have hit 15 more in the tournament - with Marsh and Livingstone hitting 20 apiece - outsider status is hard to justify.
Inglis and Livingstone put on 136 for the first wicket against Thunder. They are respectively 13/5 and 16/5 to top-score for Perth. Marsh and Cameron Bancroft are both 4/1 in a trappy market.
Likewise, the Strikers list is hard to separate. Travis Head and Weatherald are top-rated at 3/1, while their top runscorer in the series, Jon Wells, is a 6/1 chance.
Siddle to maintain excellent season
One further bet. Rashid Khan always looks under-priced for Strikers Top Wicket Taker and 15/8 is plenty short enough here. Peter Siddle is only one wicket behind his tally of 17 and much better value at 10/3.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty
Paul's 2019/20 Big Bash P/L: