There's lots at stake for both teams in Monday's game but Matt Harris expects key changes in personnel to give Renegades the edge...
"Cameron White has been cleared to play his second match in 24 hours but this will be a much-changed side from the one that lost to the Stars last time out."
Melbourne Renegades v Adelaide Strikers
Monday, 08:40 GMT
While the Renegades are one of three teams locked on eight points and chasing the fourth knockout slot, some odd scheduling means that this Melbourne franchise has three games left to play as opposed to just one for the Thunder and the Heat and one more win should see them into the next phase.
A superior run rate may be required to see them progress but will the Renegades miss Aaron Finch who has back to back tons in the Australian Gold but has had a poor season for his franchise? The skipper has clearly found form so there is pressure on his likely replacement, 17 year old Mackenzie Harvey.
Cameron White has been cleared to play his second match in 24 hours but this will be a much-changed side from the one that lost to the Stars last time out. With Kieron Pollard called up to replace Mohammad Nabi, this is a far more threatening Renegades unit.
The Strikers are already through with six wins from eight and victory in this game would secure a home semi. Cricket Australia has also been kind to Adelaide with Travis Head and Alex Carey cleared to play in Monday's game so the visitors should be at full strength.
Carey's runs earned the stumper an unlikely international call up and the 26 year old may be a little unlucky to see Tim Paine come straight back in for the third ODI but that's obviously good news for the Strikers and could just get them over the line in a tight game.
The overseas imports have been crucial and while Colin Ingram started slowly, the South African has scored vital runs when needed and the bowling unit has begun to step up after an over-reliance on Rashid Khan at the start of the competition.
Venue and Conditions
The Docklands Stadium in Melbourne has provided a low scoring surface this season and after three games, the average first innings score sits at just 143.Two of those ties have gone to the side batting second and the Renegades have won just once at home in BBL07 so far.
Monday is expected to be warm with partial cloud cover so there's no need for the roof and while the side winning the toss will likely want to insert, those making first use of the track should be looking to go far beyond that 143 average and look for something in the region of the winning 167 made by Melbourne Stars last time out.
Results over the course of the season leave a predictable market with the Strikers installed as favourites at [1.85] and the Renegades following at [2.14]. As we've seen with other sides - the Sixers in particular - results have changed following international call ups around the world and that element could swing the odds back in Melbourne's favour.
Aaron Finch won't be missed too much while Kieron Pollard's introduction could just make the difference with bat and ball. Like many players, the West Indian has an IPL auction panel to impress and in a format where one big performance can clinch the points, I've an inkling Pollard will produce it for the Renegades.
Alex Carey has top scored in each of the Strikers' last three games and in five out of eight overall so why am I not tipping the joint favourite at [3.4]? Like any punter, I have preferred players in these markets and along with the Kohlis, Warners and De Villiers, one of those is Colin Ingram.
There are good reasons to back the South African at that same [3.4] and while it's not been a great BBL, Ingram has delivered the profit twice this season and has developed over the last two years to make his own case for the 2018 Indian Premier League.
Other options include Travis Head at [3.6], Jake Weatherald at [4.0] and Jake Lehmann at [7.00] but Ingram is the recommended bet.
As we've seen, this isn't the highest scoring ground in the BBL and with big boundaries we may not get a glut of maximums but there is definite value in the Renegades at [2.3]. Even if they lose the match, the higher portion of power hitters sit in the home dugout and that's a good price.
Matt Harris' BBL07 P/L