Big Bash Finals Betting: Stars to fade at the last as Strikers eye title

D'Arcy Short
Short is back for Hobart Hurricanes

Ed Hawkins has all the stats, trends, strengths and weaknesses for the Big Bash finalists...

"Unfortunately Stars look unlikely to buck that trend with confidence evaporating. Haris Rauf might get them over the line to a final if Pakistan release him"

Melbourne Stars 7/5

To reach final 1/31.34
2019-20 stats 10 wins-4 losses
RPO for 8.11
RPO against 7.77
Five-season stats
Batted first
20 occasions
Won batting first 9 (45%)
Highest score batting first 219
160+ scores batting first 10 (520)
Mean score batting first 158.3
Batted second 34 occasions
Won batting second 21 (61.7%)
Biggest chase 188

Stars were dominant in the ladder campaign until top spot was confirmed. They then lost their last three; all in chases, which had been their strength.

Worse has followed with the news that Sandeep Lamichhane is unavailable for the play-offs due to Nepal commitments and Hilton Cartwright is injured, forcing them to return Nic Maddinson, who has been awful for two years. Only once has a team who has won the league has also won the title. Unfortunately, Stars look unlikely to buck that trend with confidence evaporating. Haris Rauf might get them over the line to a final if Pakistan release him.

Thumbnail image for AUS-Glenn-Maxwell-640.gif

Our best XI Stoinis, Dunk, Maxwell, Handscomb, Larkin, Gotch, Coulter-Nile, Hinchcliffe, Zampa, Rauf, Coleman

Sydney Sixers 6/4

To reach final 4/111.37
2019-20 stats 9 wins-4 losses
RPO for 7.98
RPO Against 7.93
Five-season stats
Batted first
22 occasions
Won batting first 6 (27%)
Highest score batting first 186
160+ scores batting first 9 (40.9%)
Mean score batting first 141.7
Batted second 32 occasions
Won batting second 21 (plus 2 tie) (65%)
Biggest chase 189

Sixers started the rot for the Stars and with Australia players coming back they look the most likely winners.

Many would have the Stars and Sixers the other way round in the betting. Steve Smith, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon have turned up at just the right time. In a chase, they are supreme. Work to do on defending targets and busting 160. Their Australian trio could render the long-haul data less relevant. Remember it was Smith who skippered Sixers to the first title. Tom Curran has left for England duty which leaves a hole at No 7, exposing their Achilles heel. They're a bowling all-rounder short.

Our best XI Phillipe, Hughes, Vince, Smith, Henriques, Silk, Manenti, Dwarshius, Hazlewood, O'Keefe, Lyon

Adelaide Strikers 5/1

To reach final 12/53.35
2019-20 stats 8 wins-5 losses
RPO for 8.5
RPO Against 8.1
Five-season stats
Batted first
38 occasions
Won batting first 22 (57.8%)
Highest score batting first 202
160+ scores batting first 20 (52.6%)
Mean score batting first 157.2
Batted second 16 occasions
Won batting second 8 (50%)
Biggest chase 222

We're on Strikers at 3/14.0 to reach the final. Two days ago, we were very happy with the wager, reckoning they were the best team left. But conceding 217 against Hobart hurt as an early-season weakness for being leaky returned.

Peter Siddle and Rashid Khan need to exhort the bowling unit to go again. Otherwise they are the best balanced XI in the competition. Phil Salt has proved an astute signing and the returning Travis Head and Alex Carey have bolstered a strong batting line-up with Jono Wells also excelling. A Strikers-Sixers final has appeal.

Our best XI Salt, Weatherald, Head, Carey, Wells, Short, Rashid, Neser, Siddle, W Agar, Stanlake

Hobart Hurricanes 11/1

To reach final 11/26.4
2019-20 stats 6 wins-7 losses
RPO for 8.5
RPO Against 8.1
Five-season stats
Batted first
35 occasions
Won batting first 17 (48.5%)
Highest score batting first 217
160+ scores batting first 27 (77%)
Mean score batting first 167.7
Batted second 20 occasions
Won batting second 11 (55)
Biggest chase 222

Good on Hobart, who must win three-in-a-row staring with Thunder on Thursday, for fighting until the last. They looked done for when they lost D'Arcy Short to Australia and Riley Meredith and James Faulkner to injury. Faulkner has returned and, alongside George Bailey, who has found form, the Hurricanes could yet reverse their campaign from last term. That season, they beat everyone out of sight to top the league and then go out.

The Short-Matthew Wade dream team up front makes them a terrifying prospect batting first because they're so consistent busting a big score. The pay off is five bowlers. The key find has been young pacer Nathan Ellis, who has revitalised their bowling.

Our best XI Wade, Short, McDermott, Wright, Miller, Bailey, Faulkner, Rose, Boland, Ahmed, Ellis

Sydney Thunder 17/1

To reach final 9/110.0
2019-20 stats 6 wins- 7 losses
RPO for 8
RPO Against 8.1
Five-season stats
Batted first
25 occasions
Won batting first 11 (44%)
Highest score batting first 202
160+ scores batting first 12 (48%)
Mean score batting first 158.7
Batted second 27 occasions
Won batting second 14 (51.8%)
Biggest chase 181

It's easy to dismiss Thunder because they finished fifth. Under previous tournament rules they would be packing their bags. But it's worth remembering they were denied certain victory against Strikers by bushfire smoke (two more balls and the points were theirs). Seven wins would have seen them qualify comfortably.

Still, the loss of Chris Green hurt them badly and they haven't carried the same threat since. They need Usman Khawaja to spark as he did when they won their only title to back up the brilliant Daniel Sams with the ball.

Our best XI Hales, Khawaja, Ferguson, Ross, Morris, Sams, Sandhu, Nair, Tremain, Lenton, Cook.

Already advised

Stars to win BBl 11/26.40 (1pt)
Sixers top five 10/111.91 (2pts)
Strikers to reach final 3/14.0 (0.5pts)
J Phillipe top Sixers bat 9/2 (3pts)

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