Hobart have launched a miraculous comeback and could qualify if winning their final match. However Paul Krishnamurty says they are clearly inferior to Strikers...
"Hobart are much more competitive with D'Arcy Short in the side but this Strikers attack doesn't give much away at home."
Adelaide Strikers v Hobart Hurricanes
Sunday, 08:10 GMT
Live on BT Sport
Both sides have plenty of incentive
This is the penultimate group match and both sides have plenty to play for. Adelaide are guaranteed a play-off spot and must win this in order to grab second place, thus securing two cracks at reaching the final.
In contrast, Hobart's fate involves numerous permutations. They must win to qualify, but would still be dependent on other results. If Scorchers beat Thunder in the earlier match, then Heat beat Renegades in the final group match, Hobart will be out.
Alternatively if Thunder win that earlier match, Hurricanes will know exactly what is required. Effectively, win this match by the same margin, thus retaining a slight run-rate advantage. If they win but surrender that advantage, they'll need a favour from Renegades on Monday.
Hurricanes boosted by late run
Either way, the game matters more to the visitors, who are currently 11/102.1 for the match. Much to do then but Hurricanes must be delighted to have the chance. When losing the reverse fixture last weekend they looked out, ruined by batting failures. From a peak of 249/1250.0 to win the title, they're down to 54/155.0.
Matthew Wade and Mac Wright corrected that weakness in two subsequent wins and with the return of D'Arcy Short - an unlikely five-wicket hero last time - they're back to full strength.
Bat first for advantage at Adelaide
The Adelaide Oval has hosted 19 Big Bash fixtures during the last three seasons, providing clear signals. 12 (63%) were won by the team batting first.
Eight (42%) of the first innings totals landed between 168 and 178. On six of those eight occasions, it was successfully defended.
Try two bets on boundaries
Based on those stats, the total boundaries markets look slightly wrong. Total Sixes looks on the high side, with unders/overs options available at 12.5. That was only beaten seven times out of those 19 matches.
Equally Total Fours is at 25.5, which has been passed 12 times out of 19 - 16 of those matches yielded at least 24. Take 11/10 about the outsider in both markets.
Strikers still rated superior
A week ago, I rated Strikers the much better side and that hasn't changed. Sure, Hobart are much more competitive with D'Arcy Short in the side but this Strikers attack - boasting three of the top-six tournament wicket-takers - doesn't give much away at home.
Given the potential for the market to flip-flop post-toss, my plan is to place an order to back Strikers at 7/52.4 in-running. See here for Betfair's How-To Guide regarding setting your own orders in-play.
Jon Wells is now the tournament's third highest runscorer in the series but he's only rated fifth best for Strikers at 6/1 - behind Travis Head, Jake Weatherald, Alex Carey and Phil Salt (who topped their list last time). 3/1 the field seems fair in a tight market.
When D'Arcy Short and Matthew Wade open together, one invariably wins top bat honours. They are 11/5 and 11/4 respectively. We've backed George Bailey a few times with some success and he's attractively priced at 12/1 here.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty
Paul's 2019/20 Big Bash P/L:
Place order to back Adelaide Strikers 3u @ 7/52.4
Back Over 25.5 Fours 2u @ 11/10
Back Under 12.5 Sixes 2u @ 11/10