Bat and ball / Alsy / 23 October 2007 /

Pablo Luna- Moonlighting for Betfair - Pablo looks at why the draw in Test cricket has become an increasingly rare occurrance

The last 20-30 years has seen a remarkable drop in the number of draws in Test cricket with nations showing a new aggression and a much more positive attitude (historically a third of all Test matches had ended in a draw with India and New Zealand nearer 40%. It is remarkable that Australia has won 64% of their matches). Though a cricket traditionalist, I welcome this new approach. I want to see fewer draws but would not like to go American and remove them completely.

This reduction in draws has manifested itself in many ways!

There is absolutely no doubt that the fielding and catching has spectacularly improved dismissal rates. Run outs are now an essential weapon in the fielding team's armoury, something you rarely saw pre 1960. When the ball goes in the air near a fielder now you expect him to catch it and are disappointed if he does not. Laziness in the field is being eradicated and this reduces batsmen time and scoring in the middle.

The fitness of players has improved considerably which in turn has helped players last five days. The days of easy hundreds are gone and the game is mentally tougher and is now played in a high intensity arena where there is no chance to coast and relax. Concentration levels have to be on maximum alert at all times.

The captaincy has been taken to a new level. Each captain will have a dossier on the weaknesses of the opposition and will seek to exploit them at every opportunity. There is complete attention to detail with computerised video evidence and pie charts plotting their opponent's downfall.

There has also been changes in the game to allow time to be made up when lost to weather. This has assisted in securing a win/lose result.

The single most important factor in the draws decreasing over the years are the teams themselves. I think the West Indies changed the script employing a battery of fast bowlers to pulverise their opponents back in the 60's. Their hostile raw aggression changed forever the way the game was played. Teams who played against them used the word 'survival' whilst they strove for the win. Later Australia took over and to the present day dominates proceedings, steamrollering anyone who gets in the way. Although they have been blessed with great bowlers, the Australian batsmen refused to score at less than four runs per over! Other countries have been forced to follow suit. Rightly or wrongly the days of Geoffrey Boycott are gone forever!

In the forthcoming series between Sri Lanka and England the only way you can confidently back or predict the draw is if you think weather will intervene. Matches that are played over the full five days invariably end with one team winning. I suspect that the wickets are being prepared for Murilatharan and his doosra so you may want to lay the draw initially (currently 2.64 with Betfair. Sri Lanka are 2.22 to win and England 4.2 to win with Betfair).

Incidentally the Asigiriya School Ground in Kandy where the first test starts on 1 December 2007, is renown for its bounce and turn and should Sri Lanka win the toss and bat first then I do not think the match will last 5 days. I note with interest that for the match to finish on the evening of day four the odds are currently 8 with Betfair.

For more stats on the occurrance of draws in Test cricket go to:

www.cricinfo.com

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