Hawk Eye on South Africa v Australia Second ODI: Hold your nerve

David Warner
Warner time?

Ed Hawkins says the two top-bat favourites give punters an edge in Bloemfontein on Wednesday...

"The Mangaung Oval is fourth on the list of South Africa venues (20 ODI or more) for highest strike rates. It has an average mark of 76.44. Centurion is the easiest for runmaking at 81"

De Kock and Warner value holds - just

Game one at Boland Park was a chastening experience for Hawk Eye followers. Quinton de Kock and David Warner let us down despite odds being in our favour and the man we ummed and aaahed about - Heinrich Klaasen - landed a 10/1 winner with a brilliant century.

Why weren't we on Klaasen? The answer is simple: nerve. We lost it, wary of another loss and instead decided to plump for De Kock, a good favourite with a more reliable reputation over a greater study period. Our usual rule of taking the greater edge got lost in muddled thinking.

Klaasen has been chopped to 11/2. The 10/1 is unlikely to be seen again for man who is fast-becoming South Africa's great white hope.

The second match provides another test of nerve. Do we keep faith with De Kock and Warner again or do we shirk responsibility and look elsewhere for value?

Easy. We keep faith. We hold our nerve and bet two incorrect prices. De Kock is given an 11/5 quote. That's implied probability of 31.3%. We rate him on two-year data at 36.1%. It is a comfort rug that De Kock also has ground form having taken apart England's attack in 2016.

Klaasen, by the way, is not a wager because we don't want to be guilty of following the money. He doesn't top score 80% of the time so we're happy to sit this one out.

As for Warner, the edge is smaller - 1.1% at 11/4 with Sportsbook. In an effort to find something else to snuggle up to, we filtered Australia top-bat wins batting first and second in the last three years. An interesting study because of Australia's awful record chasing away from home.

Aaron Finch, who is 3/1, has six wins in 14. Warner four in 14. In a chase, Warner has won four from nine and Finch only one from nine. That would suggest, at the least, Finch is only worth following when the pressure is off slightly first up and he can swing for the hills without fear of retribution.

Top SA bat wins/matches last two years
De Kock 13 t/36
Miller 3 t/35
Klaasen 3/15

Top SA bowler wins/matches last two years
Ngidi 7 5t/25
Shamsi 1 1t/13
Phehlukwayo 4 4t/35
Nortje 1/5

Top Aus bat wins/matches last two years
Finch 9/43
Smith 5/27
Warner 8/27
Carey 1/6

Top Aus bowler wins/matches last two years
Hazlewood 3 2t/12
Starc 5 3t/22
K Richardson 1 3t/14
Cummins 6 3t/32
Zampa 3 5t/29

In this week's Cricket...Only Bettor: the importance of ignoring emotion

Don't get overexcited by flat track

As discussed in our match preview here, runs are expected at Bloemfontein. Those with good memories will recall Jos Butler going on the rampage in 2016 as England amassed 399.

The Mangaung Oval is fourth on the list of South Africa venues (20 ODI or more) for highest strike rates. It has an average mark of 76.44. Centurion is the easiest for runmaking at 81. The ground has an average of 4.7 sixes and 36 fours per game.

Those aren't particularly high. It could be easy to fall into the trap of expecting individual brilliance here. Sportsbook go 11/10 that a century is scored in first-innings. It's not a great bet considering there have been only eight in 29 first-innings.

Betting no century is 4/6. That is too short for us to get excited about but the big hitters out there may consider it as a great bet given it occurs 72.5% of the time.

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