Ed Hawkins gets the spreadsheet out and unearths value on the side markets for the second match from Brisbane on Wednesday...
"One man who could perhaps puncture our confidence in that wager is Glenn Maxwell. He is 9/2 from 6/1 for top Australia bat and although we're sore at the cut, it's not severe enough"
Watch out for death men
The Gabba has long held a reputation for being quick. These days it is probably the quickest in Australia with the demise of the old WACA venue in Perth.
In Twenty20 Big Bash cricket, it has not been a happy hunting ground. In domestic T20 there is just one spinner - Mitch Swepson - in the top 12 wicket-takers. Pace has dominated. That sort of statistic should help inform us for a top bowler wager in the second match of the series.
We're looking hard for that edge because of the dearth of data due to so few T20 matches played over the last two years in international cricket. Now does it help that there have been team changes and injuries. AJ Tye, for example, would have been a bet on this surface because of his canny pace, death bowling and excellent record. In the last two years he has had four winners for top Aussie and five ties in 19 matches.
There is also no Mitchell Starc who, would you believe, is missing the game to be at his brother's wedding. Starc has only played twice in the last two years anyway.
Billy Stanlake, the rangy quick, catches the eye because the awkward bounce he should generate on the hard deck could expose Sri Lankan insecurities. Often we don't put too much store in batters struggling to adapt to alien conditions in T20 (it's more of a Test and, to a lesser extent, ODI strategy) but this could be one of the few examples when it's a factor.
Stanlake gets a 7/2 quote from Sportsbook. That's value on strike rate with a wicket every 14.1 balls. That's the best hit rate of any Aussie who is available. Pat Cummins, not surprisingly, is the 11/4 favourite but with three matches in two years there's no evidence he should be as skinny. For the record, his strike rate is 16.5. Adam Zampa is next best at 3.1 and with a wicket every 21 balls and the surface against him, it's not the greatest price in the world.
For top Sri Lanka bowler, cheap wickets at the death could win it. So it's hard to look past Lasith Malinga and Isuru Udana at 11/4 and 4/1 respectively. Both bowl nearly 40% of their overs at the denouement. Malinga has a strike rate of 15.4 and Udana 18.7 in the last two years.
Big fours edge
Despite Australia amassing 233 in game one in Adelaide, they hit only ten sixes. Sri Lanka managed just one giving a surprisingly low tally for the runs haul.
Sportsbook go 8/11 under 12.5 and even money over 12.5 for the action from The Gabba. What do the records in the Bash say about that?
Well, in a study of 47 matches going over would have given you a winner 15 times. That suggests Sportsbook are justified, especially considering Australia are likely to have to do the majority of the heavy hitting.
There is a whopping edge on the fours market. Sportsbook go under 27.5 fours at 5/6 and we think that's a short with a significant trend domestically for way under, primarily because of the vast, open spaces of the outfield.
One man who could perhaps puncture our confidence in that wager is Glenn Maxwell. He is 9/2 from 6/1 for top Australia bat and although we're sore at the cut, it's not severe enough. On two-year form Maxwell should be more like 7/4.
2019 - points p-l: +35.03 (103 points staked)
2018 - points p-l: +9.86 (89 points staked)
2017 - points p-l: +5.29 (26 points staked)