Australia v India Third T20 Betting Preview: Toss could clip India wings

Ed Hawkins
30 January 2016

Yuvraj could be given a hit at the SCG

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Ed Hawkins previews the last contest at Sydney on Sunday morning and although he says the odds are wrong, a toss bias takes precedence...

"This is a dead rubber after all and there is a suspicion that they will take their foot off the gas with the end of the tour now upon them."

Recommended Bet
Back side batting first

Australia v India
Sunday January 31, 08:38
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia
Australia's attitude to this T20 series has been odd. With the World Cup only a few weeks away, they have viewed the three games as an irritation, as proved by their selection policy.

Steven Smith, David Warner, John Hastings, Kane Richardson and Matthew Wade have all been left out for this contest while captain Aaron Finch is on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

Shane Watson is expected to lead the team while Usman Khawaja, who has been in terrific form, has been added to the squad. Cameron Bancroft, the Perth keeper, will play.

Shaun Tait, Scott Boland, AJ Tye and James Faulkner will form the pace attack with Nathan Lyon or Cameron Boyce used as the sole spinner.

India
India have picked the same XI for both matches so far and with the series already won, they could view the contest as a good chance to experiment. Rishi Dhawan, Harbhajan Singh, Gurkeerat Singh and Umesh Yadav are all unused so far.

First-innings runs
Here are the first-innings scores in the last nine matches at the SCG, followed by the victor (1 for side batting first, 2 for side batting second): 202/1, 162/1, 139/2, 186/1, 154/2, 182/1, 135/1, 154/2, 193/1(five-run winning margin Perth v Sixers), 179/1 (six-run margin Sixers v Hobart). There is a toss bias with seven winners choosing to bat first. But the small margins of victory listed suggests the wicket remains pretty true for batting.

Match odds
India started this series as 2.915/8 outsiders but despite two comfortable victories by 37- and 27-runs respectively, they have failed to convince the market they are a superior side.

For this one their odds have dipped to 2.26/5 with Australia 1.84/5. To bet them, however, we don't need to believe they are better than Australia. We just need to believe they are as good. That's how value works.

With Australia shorn of their best players they represent terrible value and although Glenn Maxwell, Shaun Marsh and Watson are established T20 performers, were this an IPL match, say, a franchise with the glitterati that India have in their ranks would surely be odds-on.

That said we would hardly be ultra-confident about India. This is a dead rubber after all and there is a suspicion that they will take their foot off the gas with the end of the tour now upon them.

Still, the toss bias makes it a no-brainer that we should side with India pre toss. To be a little more cautious we can use the flip as a caveat. Both matches in the series so far were won with India posting a too big total.

Top Australia runscorer
Marsh and Watson are set to open the batting. Watson scorched 66 for the Thunder against the Sixers in his last outing at the ground. Khawaja, who may not even play, would be a decent shout but Travis Head looks set to keep him out at No 5.

Top India runscorer
With 149 runs and 91 respectively, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma have fuelled India's charge. Shikhar Dhawan also found some form at the MCG last time. Yuvraj Singh, yet to face a ball, could well be promoted up the order to get a hit.

Recommended Bet
Back side batting first

Ed Hawkins P/L

2016: +32
2015: +£380.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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