Hawk Eye on Australia v India Fourth Test: Khawaja worthy of support

Ed Hawkins
02 January 2019

Khawaja is a bet

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Ed Hawkins crunches the numbers for batting and bowling bets at the SCG from Wednesday night

"The fly in the ointment for the 50-up bet is Khawaja's form. An average of 27 and a return of 167 runs for the series is a disappointment"

Batters in spotlight

Usman Khawaja, with a whopping ton last time out at the SCG, and Australia's most reliable batsmen will probably be popular at 3s (Sportsbook) for top runscorer honours but other markets also catch the eye.

First port of call is the 5/6 that he busts 29.5 runs in the first dig. It seems light for a man who is averaging close to 50 in home Tests. Alas, his hit rate is shy of the required mark at 47.6 per cent so pure value he is not.

Khawaja is 9/5 and 7/2 respectively for a first-innings half-century and ton. What do his numbers suggest his price should be in home Tests? The good news is that the 9/5 gives us an edge as he has copped eight times in 21, meaning he should be more like 8/5. For a century we rate him at 16/5 (he has five in 21) which is 1.6 percentage points out of line. Fine margins.

It would hardly be a mug bet to side with him for a century but this column can only reccommended when the percentage points are in our favour. As a rule, we would ditch a wager even if it was 0.1 points to the other side.

The fly in the ointment for the 50-up bet is Khawaja's form. An average of 27 and a return of 167 runs for the series is a disappointment. Maybe a return to Sydney will give him a boost.

The star of the India batting show has unquestionably been Chet Pujara. He tops the series runs lists with 328, 69 more than the venerated Virat Kohli.

But here he's a good example of how the layers can run scared of a man in form, which also puts the Khawaja wager in context. He is prohibitively short for a fifty, century and a runs quote of 34.5 in first-innings. He should be bigger across all three.

On our numbers (filtered to Tests abroad for a truer reflection) Pujara is 12/5 for a first dig fifty instead of 5/4, 4/1 instead of 7/2 for a ton and 8/5 instead of 5/6 to bust 34.5 runs.

Of course we could well short the latter but that seems unnecessarily risky given his form. We merely raise his odds and true odds as to a warning as to how we can get sucked in when one man is making the headlines.

The psychology is simple for all concerned across all sports. 'Oh so-and-so is in great touch let's bet him/keep him on our side'. Beware.

Cummins still value

Pat Cummins ensured this column ended 2018 with a tasty 10/3 winner by landing top Australia bowlers at the MCG. At another 'G - Sydney - we couldn't argue against anyone wishing to go in again, even if his odds have taken a cut.

Cummins is 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook. This is joint-second favourite with Mitchell Starc. Nathan Lyon is the 2/1 jolly. On our numbers Cummins should be heading the lists. He was, by the letter of the law, an 11/8 shot before Melbourne.

Sydney is a good ground for him, too. In the 2018 New Year's Test he won the man of the match award as he razed England, splitting eight wickets evenly between first- and second-innings. Not surprising, perhaps, with Sydney being his home town. He is 10s for another gong.