Australia v India 4th ODI: India need to chase to avoid more misery

Ed Hawkins
19 January 2016

Maxwell guided Australia to the win at the MCG

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Ed Hawkins previews Wednesday's contest from Canberra and hopes for a less one-sided affair if the tourists can go after a target a target...

"We are a little concerned that India’s batting line-up could in fact crumble under scoreboard pressure but with so few betting options we will have to chance them as value if the toss goes their way"

Recommended Bet
Back India if they bat second at 3.259/4

Australia v India
Start time: 03.20
TV: live on Sky Sports

Australia

Australia have now won 17 consecutive matches at home - a world record. They will expect to make it 19 and complete a whitewash.

To that end David Warner will return to open the batting at the expense of Shaun Marsh who has recorded two fifties. Warner is part of their strongest XI so there is no suggestion Australia are taking it easy.

One from Kane Richardson and Scott Boland could be replaced by Nathan Lyon. Joel Paris has been released from the squad.

John Hastings' four wickets and Glenn Maxwell's 83-ball 96 were the highlights of their three-wicket win at the MCG.

India

With two scores of 300 or more and one of 295 batting first, India could be forgiven for feeling hard done by that they are 3-0 down. But they are not.

Accusations of selfish batting and a failure to accelerate to post truly imposing totals are not wide of the mark. They could argue a weak middle order - the inexperienced Gurkeerkat Singh batted at No 6 at the MCG - but they should have been capable of more.

Their bowling has been poor for some time so it is no surprise that they have failed to defend. In an effort to tighten up Barinder Sran, who was expensive last time out, could be replaced by Bhuv Kumar. Ravi Ashwin could return at the expense of Rishi Dhawan.

First-innings runs

There have been only seven ODI at Canberra. The first was in 1992 but the rest have come in the last eight years. The first-innings scores read (most recent first); 411 (South Africa v Ireland), 372, 267, 329, 329, 195, 163. The pitch is reported to be flat so it would be fair to expect decent runscoring up top. Both sides should breach 300 and you might be able to get 1.75/7.

Match odds

At 1.434/9 Australia refuse to get any shorter despite the 3-0 scoreline in their favour. They don't get much bigger than that in-running, either. They were about the same just after George Bailey lost his wicket in a chase of 297 with work to do.

The advice has been from ball one in this contest that the side chasing will have the edge. And that remains India's best hope of victory.

Only two teams have won chasing at the Manuka Oval but there doesn't appear to be a strong reason as to why that should be. The Oval is a wide expanse and it should be a tough ground to defend.

We are a little concerned that India's batting line-up could in fact crumble under scoreboard pressure but with so few betting options we will have to chance them as value if the toss goes their way. This is a third-string Australia attack, after all.

Top Australia runscorer

Aaron Finch hit 109 off 127 balls against South Africa in 2014. There were fifties for Warner and Steve Smith, too. The trio are 4.94/1, 4.03/1 and 3.8514/5 respectively. Maxwell is 7.26/1.

Top India runscorer

Rohit Sharma top scored in India's only appearance at Canberra - a defeat against Sri Lanka - in 2008. Sharma is comfortably the top scorer in the series with 301 at an average of 150. He is 4.03/1. That could be considered value given Virat Kohli, a ton last time, is 3.55/2 jolly.

Ed Hawkins P/L

2016: -£2.20
2015: +£400.50
2014: +315.10
2013: +250.80
To £10 level stakes (unless otherwise stated), based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate.
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