Australia v India 3rd Test Betting: India's batsmen to come unstuck again

Ed Hawkins
23 December 2014

Harris, right, should pip Siddle to a spot

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Ed Hawkins previews the contest at the MCG, which starts on Christmas Day night, and expects the home side's bowlers to make use of a helpful wicket...

"India were pretty competitive for the first eight days of the tour but their lack of professionalism was exposed at The Gabba."

Recommended Bet
Lay India for 375 first-innings runs or more at 2.56/4

Australia v India
Start time: 23:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia

The hosts are 2-0 up and cruising. Yet they will have to make changes for the Boxing Day Test. Mitchell Starc looks likely to miss out. He has a troublesome knee which means that Ryan Harris, pushing for a return after a niggle kept him out of the Brisbane Test, could come back in. Peter Siddle is also in contention. David Warner has a sore left thumb but is adamant it will not keep him out of the game.

There will also be a debutant for Australia. Joe Burns, the 25-year-old Queensland batsman, should replace the injured Mitchell Marsh. Burns could bat at No 3 with Shane Watson dropping down to a more traditional all-rounder spot of No 6.

India

India are in a bit of a state. They have been whinging about the poor net facilities, the lack of a gym at the Gabba and no vegetarian food. A siege mentality is setting in and their collapse in game two to Mitchell Johnson was consistent with a team who cannot cope without the cosseting comforts of home.

They have a doubt over the fitness of Shikhar Dhawan, who was hit on the hand in Brisbane. It was an injury which contributed to their downfall because, unbelievably, no one in the India camp realised he was hurt. So when India resumed their second-innings, Virat Kohli had only ten minutes to prepare to bat. Then the collapse began.

Mohammad Shami looks likely to get a game at the MCG where seam and swing will be more important than pace. Varun Aaron could be the man to make way.

First-innings runs

The average score in the last 11 first-innings at the MCG is 295. We should expect the bowlers to cause problems at the 'G. Historically it offers them assistance and it would be a surprise if we saw a repeat of the run fests of the first digs so far. There have been low totals in recent years. England were knocked over for 255 last year, and to prove that the pitch was tricky, they then ran through Australia for 179. There have been other notable low totals: Sri Lanka's 156 the year before and 98 by Australia against England in 2010.

We often talk about the importance of recognising when a touring team comes up against alien conditions. The MCG offers that exact challenge to India. There will be everything they are not used to: pace, swing, seam and a hint of bounce. Unsurprisingly, Asian sides have struggled there and here is a list of the first-innings scores by India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in their cumulative last ten visits: 156-282*-258-196*-341-366*-238*-233-263*-107. That is an average of 244.

The asterisk denotes India's totals and given the bruising they suffered at the Gabba, we would not be confident of them racking up a big score. We should be able to lay them for 375 or more at around 2.56/4.

Match odds

Australia are as short as 1.645/8, India are 6.86/1 and the draw is 4.3100/30. Those odds look fair, although we should expect that stalemate price to get big pretty quickly if the expected flurry of wickets occur.
The hosts have lost only two of their last 15 at this ground and they won the rest. They beat India there by 122 runs in 2011, 337 runs in 2007, nine wickets in 2003 and 180 runs in 1999. But that is consistent for Australia in Victoria. Pretty much everyone gets a beating.

We have to be concerned about India's stomach for a fight. They were pretty competitive for the first eight days of the tour but their lack of professionalism was exposed at The Gabba.
Those who play in-running should be aware that only once since 2000 have Australia lost a home Test with a first-innings advantage. Overall, their record from 31 Tests where they enjoyed supremacy from the third-innings is: won 26, drawn three and lost one.

Top Australia runscorer

Chris Rogers knuckled down for a second-innings ton at the MCG last year against England and his tight technique could prove useful. He is 6.25/1 and showed form at The Gabba. New boy Burns is 6.05/1. Watson has the best record of any Aussie at the ground and is 6.25/1. Steve Smith is 4.47/2 and Warner 4.216/5.

Top India runscorer

We need an Indian who can play the moving ball well and Murali Vijay could be that chap. He did well in England when the ball was bending in the summer. He is 4.1. Virat Kohli is 4.03/1. MS Dhoni would be our pick because we reckon the top order could get blown away. He is 6.1 but that is just not big enough at the moment.